NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	5.3 [765]		MVP	Darrell Arthur (DEN): +12.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	102		Comeback	1.2 [1243]		LVP	JJ Hickson (DEN): -12.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Arthur	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	7	86%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.04	9	62%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	12	52%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Quincy Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Randy Foye	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.03	15	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Timofey Mozgov	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	5	36%	-0.00	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Aaron Brooks	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	11	38%	-0.05	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.04

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	9	69%	0.14	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	117%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	13	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.04	15	50%	0.09	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Victor Claver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	8	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	10	41%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.0	29.9	15.7	27.3	1.0	38.0	140.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +38.0%

POR +9.7%

POR +1.1%

DEN -2.7%

POR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	13.7	15.4	15.1	97.0	103.0	105.2
season	14.0	15.1		104.5	109.6
opponent	14.8	14.9		106.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	13.9	13.0	12.8	13.7
POR	13.2	16.7	14.7	17.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Miller	23	22	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-9	12	11.6	14.3	-2.72	17.2	14.9	2.30
Timofey Mozgov	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-2	-2	14.8	13.0	1.81	14.1	16.2	-2.09
Darrell Arthur	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-2	-2	12.8	14.1	-1.27	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Evan Fournier	66	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-12	18	13.4	14.3	-0.95	16.1	14.0	2.05
JJ Hickson	61	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-7	8	13.0	14.8	-1.82	16.1	14.2	1.84
Aaron Brooks	52	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	5	-16	14.1	13.2	0.92	15.3	15.5	-0.14
Kenneth Faried	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-1	-4	14.1	12.9	1.21	15.6	15.0	0.57
Wilson Chandler	70	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	14.2	12.4	1.86	14.9	16.6	-1.65
Randy Foye	86	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	4	-14	13.8	13.1	0.71	14.8	18.9	-4.03

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	63	62	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	-5	16	15.2	15.8	-0.65	13.1	14.6	-1.48
Wesley Matthews	64	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-4	14	15.3	15.5	-0.23	14.2	12.9	1.30
Robin Lopez	64	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-4	14	15.3	15.5	-0.23	14.2	12.9	1.30
Nicolas Batum	77	76	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	0	6	14.6	18.0	-3.41	13.3	14.9	-1.58
Damian Lillard	70	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	3	0	15.6	14.8	0.80	14.0	12.9	1.12
Mo Williams	51	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	2	2	16.2	14.5	1.65	14.2	13.2	0.98
Will Barton	28	28	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	3	0	15.4	15.4	-0.05	12.9	14.0	-1.12
Meyers Leonard	36	35	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	10	-14	15.1	15.6	-0.44	12.9	14.2	-1.30
Dorell Wright	31	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	13	-20	16.0	15.1	0.88	12.8	14.1	-1.24
Victor Claver	11	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	12	-18	17.1	15.2	1.91	16.6	13.3	3.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, IND 114	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CHA 80, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
UTA 91, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.9%