NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	79		Excitement	4.9 [856]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +15.3%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.6 [932]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHI): -17.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	11	69%	0.10	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	18	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.08	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	12	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	0.00	10	9%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.02	-0.01	23	56%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	22	49%	0.05	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	55%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	3.4	32.1	17.7	27.9	2.6	35.4	142.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.2%

CHI -2.3%

CHI -10.5%

MIA +28.4%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	16.3	15.1	88.8	105.7	105.2
season	16.3	15.6		101.1	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.3		105.1	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.9	17.3	17.3	14.4	16.2
MIA	16.1	16.2	15.5	17.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	7	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-11	8	18.7	16.0	2.73	15.1	16.5	-1.37
Kirk Hinrich	63	62	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-14	14	16.0	16.7	-0.64	17.1	14.5	2.67
Joakim Noah	74	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-9	4	16.2	16.0	0.24	17.0	13.3	3.70
Tony Snell	70	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-5	-4	16.4	15.4	0.99	16.4	16.0	0.39
Carlos Boozer	45	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-5	-4	16.6	15.8	0.76	15.8	16.9	-1.14
Taj Gibson	52	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	15.5	17.2	-1.74	16.1	16.7	-0.58
Mike Dunleavy	66	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	5	-24	16.2	16.1	0.16	16.2	16.9	-0.68
D.J. Augustin	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.07	-14	0	-14	16.1	16.5	-0.36	15.7	18.5	-2.86

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	57	58	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.06	18	-4	22	16.0	17.0	-1.02	16.2	16.3	-0.14
Mario Chalmers	72	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-1	16	16.3	16.6	-0.27	16.4	15.5	0.88
Chris Bosh	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	3	8	16.3	16.5	-0.18	15.7	17.6	-1.84
Shane Battier	46	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	5	4	16.0	16.7	-0.76	17.3	14.9	2.46
Chris Andersen	46	44	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	2	10	16.0	16.7	-0.62	17.7	14.8	2.88
Michael Beasley	38	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	8	-2	16.1	16.5	-0.37	15.3	16.9	-1.64
Dwyane Wade	62	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	13	-12	17.0	14.8	2.23	15.7	17.5	-1.78
Greg Oden	24	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	13	-12	16.7	16.2	0.56	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Toney Douglas	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	13	-12	21.5	16.2	5.28	10.0	16.3	-6.27
Norris Cole	26	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	18	-22	16.5	16.3	0.23	15.6	16.4	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
UTA 108, DAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
POR 82, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%