NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	2.4 [1254]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +16.1%
Atlanta Hawks	79		Comeback	1.0 [1035]		LVP	James Nunnally (ATL): -7.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.01	-0.02	10	90%	0.16	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.00	0.08	10	95%	0.09	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	14	50%	0.05	3	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	10	50%	0.04	4	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Aron Baynes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	10	27%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Othyus Jeffers	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	40%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	8	56%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	3	37%	-0.01	5	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.05	6	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	17	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	0.06	11	48%	-0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
James Nunnally	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.06	8	28%	-0.02	4	-0.05	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	30.6	15.8	27.2	1.8	23.4	123.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.7%

SAS +0.2%

SAS +2.6%

SAS +9.2%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	13.3	15.1	106.1	79.8	105.2
season	15.0	14.8		109.8	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.0		104.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	16.5	13.6	20.1	15.8
ATL	13.8	13.5	13.1	12.6	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	50	50	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.35	27	-1	28	13.5	18.2	-4.78	13.3	13.2	0.16
Tony Parker	58	59	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.30	23	3	20	14.3	18.0	-3.79	13.5	12.8	0.69
Tim Duncan	55	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.26	21	5	16	15.2	16.6	-1.33	14.1	12.2	1.86
Patty Mills	52	51	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.27	20	6	14	14.3	17.5	-3.12	12.5	14.0	-1.47
Manu Ginobili	43	43	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.20	17	9	8	12.8	18.1	-5.33	12.9	13.6	-0.71
Marco Belinelli	37	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.12	11	15	-4	16.4	15.5	0.88	14.0	12.8	1.16
Cory Joseph	59	59	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.04	5	21	-16	17.7	13.0	4.70	13.8	12.4	1.45
Aron Baynes	39	37	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	22	-18	17.2	14.9	2.31	12.5	13.7	-1.28
Nando De Colo	33	34	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	21	-16	18.9	14.3	4.67	12.8	13.5	-0.71
Jeff Ayres	25	26	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	22	-18	14.6	16.2	-1.64	13.4	13.2	0.17
Othyus Jeffers	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	29	-32	20.0	15.1	4.92	12.7	13.4	-0.62
Matt Bonner	29	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	30	-34	20.2	14.0	6.19	12.5	13.6	-1.11

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	44	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.14	-10	-16	6	13.0	13.5	-0.47	17.4	14.6	2.77
Gustavo Ayon	52	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-19	12	13.7	12.8	0.95	17.0	14.6	2.43
Dennis Schroder	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-16	6	12.8	13.7	-0.95	16.5	15.2	1.34
Kyle Korver	53	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-16	6	13.7	12.8	0.86	15.7	16.0	-0.31
Shelvin Mack	45	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	-13	0	13.1	13.4	-0.32	16.1	15.6	0.56
Jeff Teague	28	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.10	-12	-14	2	14.0	13.0	0.98	15.0	16.2	-1.20
James Nunnally	46	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.20	-16	-10	-6	12.8	13.7	-0.86	16.0	15.7	0.31
Elton Brand	47	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.21	-19	-7	-12	12.8	13.7	-0.95	14.6	17.0	-2.43
Paul Millsap	55	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.12	-16	-10	-6	13.5	13.0	0.47	14.6	17.4	-2.77
Louis Williams	77	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-9	-8	13.4	12.7	0.69	15.5	16.9	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, CHI 67	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
DAL 92, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%
POR 118, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%