NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	5.5 [725]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +13.8%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	1.0 [1092]		LVP	Rudy Gay (TOR): -13.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	17	67%	0.20	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	117%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.03	16	59%	0.09	5	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Norris Cole	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Buycks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	12	67%	-0.03
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	10	62%	0.06	7	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.11	0.04	20	53%	-0.07	3	-0.06	7	43%	-0.09
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	21	43%	-0.04	3	-0.10	7	29%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.6	30.2	17.5	31.6	2.8	38.2	151.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +56.0%

TOR -1.5%

TOR -13.7%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	14.8	15.1	91.8	85.6	105.2
season	15.6	15.9		109.7	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.6	13.8	15.9	15.7	14.7
TOR	14.7	16.2	14.8	13.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	72	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.00	22	-15	37	14.3	15.8	-1.46	14.8	14.8	-0.00
Chris Bosh	41	44	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-9	25	13.4	15.6	-2.16	15.6	14.2	1.36
Mario Chalmers	58	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-2	11	14.2	15.5	-1.32	14.6	15.3	-0.69
LeBron James	74	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.30	3	4	-1	14.7	14.6	0.15	14.5	16.0	-1.49
Michael Beasley	28	28	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	1	5	13.8	15.0	-1.22	14.6	14.9	-0.33
Shane Battier	36	36	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	-4	15	14.6	14.8	-0.22	14.8	14.9	-0.02
Norris Cole	40	37	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	9	-11	15.5	14.2	1.32	15.3	14.6	0.69
Udonis Haslem	19	18	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	9	-11	15.0	14.6	0.38	12.7	15.3	-2.61
Ray Allen	47	45	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.21	-8	15	-23	15.1	14.3	0.79	15.4	14.4	0.95
Chris Andersen	38	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.17	-7	14	-21	15.9	13.9	1.96	15.0	14.8	0.24
Rashard Lewis	37	36	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.21	-13	20	-33	15.6	14.1	1.53	15.1	14.7	0.42

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	32	32	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.32	12	-19	31	14.2	15.2	-1.03	16.6	13.8	2.77
Tyler Hansbrough	50	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.45	13	-20	33	14.2	15.6	-1.41	15.4	13.9	1.46
Quincy Acy	8	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-5	3	17.2	14.6	2.62	12.3	14.9	-2.59
Landry Fields	9	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-2	-3	18.6	14.5	4.09	13.4	14.9	-1.50
Dwight Buycks	9	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-2	-3	18.6	14.5	4.09	15.3	14.6	0.70
Terrence Ross	47	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-7	7	14.9	14.8	0.01	15.1	14.3	0.75
Amir Johnson	34	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	7	-21	15.1	14.7	0.46	13.6	15.3	-1.66
Jonas Valanciunas	38	37	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.13	-16	9	-25	15.7	14.3	1.38	13.2	15.6	-2.46
Rudy Gay	81	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-5	3	14.4	17.0	-2.58	14.5	15.6	-1.11
Kyle Lowry	88	89	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-5	3	14.5	18.6	-4.09	14.6	15.3	-0.70
DeMar DeRozan	89	90	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.23	-14	7	-21	14.8	15.4	-0.58	15.0	11.4	3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.06,0,0	94.8%
MIN 113, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.22,0.2,0.08,0,0,0	94.5%
PHI 126, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.04,0,0,0	94.4%