NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	6.6 [490]		MVP	Tiago Splitter (SAS): +12.2%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	5.3 [380]		LVP	Nate Robinson (DEN): -18.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	7	63%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	75%	0.25	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Boris Diaw	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.09	-0.00	10	45%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	14	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	15	52%	0.01	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	27%	-0.09	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.02	6	92%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.08	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	0.04	18	44%	-0.06	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	10	43%	-0.00	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	9	25%	-0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.9	15.7	28.0	2.0	30.3	129.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +22.2%

SAS +10.8%

DEN -3.0%

SAS +18.3%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	14.3	15.1	98.1	91.3	105.2
season	15.0	14.0		109.8	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.0		106.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	12.8	12.5	13.6	13.6
DEN	11.5	16.0	16.3	13.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	58	58	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.21	20	-12	32	12.8	14.5	-1.63	13.8	14.8	-0.96
Danny Green	55	52	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	1	6	13.6	13.5	0.15	14.6	14.0	0.60
Manu Ginobili	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	-7	22	12.4	15.1	-2.76	14.5	14.0	0.50
Patty Mills	31	30	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.10	9	-1	10	12.8	13.9	-1.08	14.9	14.0	0.85
Tony Parker	73	73	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	9	-10	13.9	12.8	1.08	14.0	14.9	-0.85
Tim Duncan	75	74	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	9	-10	13.9	12.6	1.36	13.9	15.2	-1.32
Kawhi Leonard	71	72	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.26	-5	13	-18	14.4	11.9	2.47	14.3	14.1	0.24
Jeff Ayres	13	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	4	0	10.9	13.9	-3.02	17.2	13.9	3.38
Tiago Splitter	45	45	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	12	-16	14.9	12.6	2.29	13.8	14.6	-0.74
Marco Belinelli	24	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	10	-12	13.5	13.6	-0.14	12.8	14.7	-1.85
Matt Bonner	16	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	10	-12	13.7	13.5	0.22	16.3	13.9	2.43

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	19	19	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.07	-1	-7	6	14.8	14.1	0.65	12.5	13.8	-1.27
Nate Robinson	40	42	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-7	6	13.9	14.5	-0.63	12.4	14.4	-2.03
Timofey Mozgov	47	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-4	0	13.9	14.6	-0.76	14.0	13.3	0.70
Randy Foye	59	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-13	18	14.3	14.2	0.14	13.4	13.9	-0.53
JJ Hickson	35	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	0	-8	14.1	14.3	-0.22	13.9	13.4	0.51
JaVale McGee	45	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-9	10	14.4	14.1	0.32	12.8	14.1	-1.29
Jordan Hamilton	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-2	-4	13.7	14.8	-1.04	15.7	11.7	4.01
Kenneth Faried	62	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-9	10	14.5	14.0	0.48	13.5	13.7	-0.27
Darrell Arthur	16	16	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	1	-10	15.9	14.0	1.91	13.4	13.6	-0.23
Ty Lawson	80	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	14.0	15.2	-1.17	14.1	11.7	2.36
Andre Miller	63	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.27	-12	4	-16	14.7	13.5	1.16	12.8	14.8	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 115, ORL 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	93.6%
CLE 112, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.05,0,0.02,0	92.8%
PHX 88, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.8%