NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Excitement	7.7 [295]		MVP	Michael Harris (UTA): +13.5%
Utah Jazz	98		Comeback	1.7 [899]		LVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): -25.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	11	58%	0.18	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.03	24	58%	0.23	5	-0.23	24	92%	0.10
Steven Adams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	15	27%	-0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	68%	0.18	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	16	59%	0.16	3	-0.12	9	89%	0.07
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	9	53%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.02
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	7	50%	-0.05	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Favors	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.12	0.02	11	52%	-0.03	6	-0.19	7	43%	-0.12
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.13	0.02	13	40%	-0.15	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	28.5	15.7	27.6	1.8	41.5	144.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +1.6%

OKC +24.0%

OKC +5.4%

OKC +19.1%

UTA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	UTA	NBA	OKC	UTA	NBA
this game	13.7	14.7	15.1	99.0	97.0	105.2
season	14.4	16.2		107.8	102.1
opponent	14.8	15.4		109.6	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.4	14.3	14.3	14.0	13.7
UTA	14.2	18.5	13.9	12.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	68	67	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-6	15	13.6	14.0	-0.46	13.8	16.4	-2.61
Kendrick Perkins	59	59	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-6	15	13.5	14.0	-0.43	13.9	15.8	-1.90
Kevin Durant	83	84	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	0	3	13.4	15.0	-1.57	14.5	15.6	-1.19
Reggie Jackson	69	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	2	-1	13.7	13.8	-0.18	14.4	15.2	-0.87
Serge Ibaka	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	2	-1	13.5	14.6	-1.10	14.4	15.5	-1.10
Nick Collison	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	0	3	14.7	13.4	1.33	14.7	14.6	0.10
Derek Fisher	37	35	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	3	-3	13.4	13.9	-0.54	15.4	14.3	1.10
Perry Jones	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	13.1	13.8	-0.79	15.9	14.4	1.42
Jeremy Lamb	36	35	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	9	-15	14.3	13.4	0.94	15.6	14.2	1.40
Steven Adams	35	35	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	10	-17	15.0	13.1	1.90	17.0	13.4	3.59

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	17	18	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-8	13	15.6	14.5	1.19	13.3	13.8	-0.48
Rudy Gobert	45	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-4	5	16.3	13.3	2.99	15.1	12.6	2.44
Michael Harris	41	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.15	2	-5	7	16.7	13.3	3.38	14.9	12.9	1.97
Richard Jefferson	45	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-2	1	14.0	15.1	-1.10	11.8	15.4	-3.65
Alec Burks	66	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-1	-1	15.0	13.9	1.13	13.3	14.5	-1.20
Derrick Favors	89	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-2	1	14.7	14.7	-0.01	14.1	10.5	3.67
John Lucas III	77	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	3	-9	14.4	15.5	-1.06	14.0	13.0	1.01
Enes Kanter	63	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	5	-13	14.1	15.5	-1.40	13.3	14.3	-0.99
Gordon Hayward	62	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	2	-7	12.7	17.7	-4.99	13.5	14.0	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.22,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.02,0.06,0.04,0	93.2%
UTA 90, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.02,0	93.1%
NOH 92, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.17,0	93.1%