NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	7.3 [361]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (LAL): +29.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	1.6 [420]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -23.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.09	0.07	0.03	11	62%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.04
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	22	51%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	13	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Tiago Splitter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	13	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Cory Joseph	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.19	-0.05	-0.00	10	18%	-0.13	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.10	0.19	-0.01	8	75%	0.31	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jodie Meeks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.05	0.10	-0.02	11	36%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	16	64%	0.13	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	15	55%	0.08	3	-0.09	17	47%	-0.16
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darius Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.20	-0.04	-0.01	17	19%	-0.16	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	28.1	15.0	28.8	1.8	27.0	129.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +35.7%

LAL +3.8%

LAL +25.3%

SAS -15.6%

LAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.4	92.5	98.9	104.1
season	15.2	14.9		106.4	106.0
opponent	15.3	15.1		105.7	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.4	16.3	13.8	16.7	14.9
LAL	16.1	17.2	15.0	16.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	26	25	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-5	5	14.2	15.2	-1.02	14.7	16.8	-2.06
Nando De Colo	17	18	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-7	9	14.2	15.1	-0.84	15.1	16.5	-1.38
Tony Parker	57	56	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-2	-1	14.6	15.5	-0.89	16.1	16.4	-0.37
Cory Joseph	13	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-7	9	14.5	15.0	-0.54	17.6	16.0	1.57
Tiago Splitter	59	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-3	1	14.7	15.3	-0.58	16.6	15.6	0.90
Tim Duncan	63	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.7	15.3	-0.55	16.9	14.6	2.37
Kawhi Leonard	63	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-1	-3	15.6	13.4	2.20	16.5	15.7	0.82
Danny Green	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	14.5	16.2	-1.74	17.5	12.7	4.80
Gary Neal	56	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	3	-11	15.4	14.2	1.27	14.7	18.4	-3.71
Matt Bonner	43	42	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	15.8	14.1	1.70	15.4	16.9	-1.54

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jodie Meeks	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-1	7	16.4	15.7	0.69	15.2	14.2	1.02
Pau Gasol	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-1	7	17.2	11.8	5.46	14.9	14.9	-0.02
Metta World Peace	52	54	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	2	1	17.2	14.9	2.38	15.1	14.7	0.44
Antawn Jamison	37	40	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	-3	11	14.7	17.2	-2.53	16.2	13.9	2.28
Darius Morris	39	41	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	-2	9	14.9	17.2	-2.29	16.0	14.1	1.84
Steve Blake	69	67	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.22	-4	9	-13	17.2	13.4	3.77	14.1	17.0	-2.83
Dwight Howard	72	71	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.18	-4	9	-13	15.9	17.2	-1.26	14.2	17.3	-3.08
Earl Clark	40	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	3	-1	14.9	17.2	-2.38	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Chris Duhon	8	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	4	-3	13.0	16.5	-3.52	14.1	15.0	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 107, POR 129	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.91,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.7%
CHI 93, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%
WAS 89, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.2%