NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	101		Excitement	5.0 [820]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +11.3%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.0 [1269]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (SAC): -11.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmer Fredette	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.00	8	78%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.02	0.06	11	61%	0.07	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Toney Douglas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	11	68%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.02	5	92%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	59%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	63%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	13	73%	0.15	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.03	6	86%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.06	18	44%	0.05	3	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	14	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	30.1	15.4	23.9	2.0	25.3	123.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.6%

SAS +9.4%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	15.4	103.1	108.0	104.1
season	15.0	15.2		104.7	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.2		99.5	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.0	14.3	14.9	15.5	15.1
SAS	13.0	11.9	15.1	16.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmer Fredette	51	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.30	6	-13	19	14.3	16.1	-1.81	13.6	14.3	-0.72
DeMarcus Cousins	56	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.19	2	-9	11	14.9	15.4	-0.49	15.0	12.5	2.57
Toney Douglas	53	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-10	13	14.8	15.4	-0.60	13.7	14.3	-0.68
Jason Thompson	66	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-2	-3	14.3	16.7	-2.42	14.1	13.7	0.38
John Salmons	42	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	2	-11	15.0	15.2	-0.17	14.3	13.7	0.61
Tyreke Evans	43	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	2	-11	16.0	14.4	1.61	14.2	13.8	0.44
Charles Hayes	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-4	1	16.1	14.6	1.54	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Isaiah Thomas	45	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	3	-13	15.4	14.8	0.60	14.3	13.7	0.68
Marcus Thornton	60	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	15.3	14.9	0.41	13.9	14.2	-0.33
Patrick Patterson	39	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	1	-9	15.9	14.6	1.24	12.7	14.7	-2.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	59	57	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-7	21	14.0	13.9	0.09	14.9	15.5	-0.59
DeJuan Blair	29	29	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	-3	13	13.6	14.1	-0.55	14.5	15.4	-0.86
Tim Duncan	72	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-1	9	13.9	14.2	-0.37	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Tony Parker	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-2	11	13.5	15.1	-1.60	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Kawhi Leonard	74	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	3	1	14.0	13.9	0.08	14.9	15.8	-0.94
Matt Bonner	31	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	7	-7	14.2	13.9	0.36	16.1	14.7	1.39
Nando De Colo	26	24	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	8	-9	15.5	13.4	2.11	16.9	14.5	2.38
Danny Green	67	65	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.23	-4	11	-15	13.9	14.1	-0.17	15.6	14.2	1.42
Tiago Splitter	67	66	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.16	-3	10	-13	14.3	13.4	0.92	15.4	14.6	0.83
Cory Joseph	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	8	-9	5.0	14.1	-9.07	7.0	15.2	-8.21
Aron Baynes	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	8	-9	5.0	14.1	-9.07	7.0	15.2	-8.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 83, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.75,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
PHI 75, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
PHI 88, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%