NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	90		Excitement	4.9 [844]		MVP	Thabo Sefolosha (OKC): +9.3%
Utah Jazz	80		Comeback	1.2 [955]		LVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): -16.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.02	10	75%	0.14	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.04	-0.04	9	28%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	14	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.01	0.03	21	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	16	47%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.05	13	56%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	17	51%	-0.01	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	11	36%	-0.06	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	25.7	15.8	23.5	2.4	33.2	125.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +26.1%

OKC +4.9%

OKC +0.2%

OKC +17.7%

OKC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	UTA	NBA	OKC	UTA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.4	15.4	100.0	86.0	104.1
season	14.8	16.0		109.3	104.6
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.8	14.6	15.4	15.3	15.0
UTA	16.5	16.7	16.6	16.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	69	70	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-7	24	15.2	14.2	1.01	17.3	13.8	3.47
Russell Westbrook	69	73	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	2	6	15.0	14.9	0.14	16.2	17.1	-0.90
Kendrick Perkins	54	56	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-1	12	14.7	15.5	-0.77	17.1	15.5	1.54
Serge Ibaka	59	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	2	6	15.0	15.0	-0.03	16.6	16.2	0.42
Thabo Sefolosha	50	53	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	-1	12	14.4	15.8	-1.46	16.6	16.2	0.47
Reggie Jackson	31	32	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	8	-6	15.0	15.0	0.03	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Kevin Martin	52	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.38	-6	16	-22	15.8	14.0	1.80	15.1	18.2	-3.09
Derek Fisher	21	20	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	8	-6	14.9	15.0	-0.14	17.1	16.2	0.90
Nick Collison	32	33	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.15	-3	13	-16	15.0	15.0	-0.07	15.8	16.8	-0.92
Hasheem Thabeet	13	13	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	10	-10	14.6	15.1	-0.46	16.0	16.5	-0.51

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	20	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-10	10	17.1	16.2	0.90	14.9	15.0	-0.14
Derrick Favors	55	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-14	18	16.2	16.7	-0.50	15.5	14.3	1.23
Al Jefferson	64	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-5	0	16.3	16.8	-0.46	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Gordon Hayward	67	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.14	-3	-7	4	16.6	16.0	0.67	15.3	14.3	1.04
DeMarre Carroll	45	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-6	2	15.8	17.1	-1.28	14.4	15.6	-1.18
Mo Williams	73	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	0	-10	16.2	17.1	-0.90	15.0	14.9	0.14
Randy Foye	69	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.01	-15	5	-20	16.5	16.2	0.37	14.7	15.8	-1.12
Paul Millsap	72	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.11	-17	7	-24	16.9	15.0	1.92	15.1	14.7	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.07,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.4%
SAS 108, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.29,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	95.2%
MIL 103, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%