NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	4.9 [848]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +18.9%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	1.0 [575]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (CHI): -10.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.00	13	61%	0.16	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	68%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.01	9	68%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	14	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	11	59%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	80%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Landry Fields	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.25	-0.01	0.05	12	93%	0.24	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	53%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	9	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	22	45%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.03
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	20	41%	-0.00	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	31.4	14.7	25.8	1.8	36.1	135.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +45.3%

TOR +10.3%

CHI -15.8%

TOR +7.3%

TOR +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	15.9	17.3	15.4	117.4	112.6	104.1
season	16.1	16.6		104.4	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	14.5	15.2	19.7	15.9
CHI	18.0	16.8	19.0	15.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	81	82	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-4	11	16.1	14.0	2.06	17.4	15.8	1.64
DeMar DeRozan	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	-3	9	15.4	17.4	-1.99	17.5	17.0	0.53
Kyle Lowry	60	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.24	7	-4	11	15.6	16.7	-1.13	17.7	16.4	1.27
Rudy Gay	65	69	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	-1	5	15.5	17.2	-1.65	17.1	18.1	-0.97
Jonas Valanciunas	40	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	4	-5	16.4	15.5	0.90	16.3	18.4	-2.03
Quincy Acy	51	48	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.17	1	2	-1	15.4	16.8	-1.40	18.1	16.4	1.69
Alan Anderson	12	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	4	-5	18.8	15.5	3.36	17.5	17.3	0.18
Terrence Ross	33	32	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.14	-3	6	-9	16.7	15.5	1.27	17.4	17.3	0.15
John Lucas III	26	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	7	-11	16.7	15.6	1.13	16.4	17.7	-1.27

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	1	2	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.03	2	-5	7	10.0	17.4	-7.43	11.5	16.0	-4.55
Nate Robinson	55	56	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.47	17	-20	37	16.5	18.7	-2.17	16.2	15.4	0.78
Richard Hamilton	23	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	4	-11	18.3	17.0	1.25	17.2	15.4	1.72
Malcolm Thomas	46	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.48	9	-12	21	16.5	18.2	-1.70	17.9	13.8	4.08
Nazr Mohammed	47	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	4	-11	18.1	16.4	1.70	14.5	17.7	-3.20
Kirk Hinrich	61	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-3	3	17.1	17.8	-0.66	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Marco Belinelli	35	33	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	13	-29	18.3	16.7	1.67	14.8	16.6	-1.77
Jimmy Butler	87	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	17.3	0.0	17.34	15.9	0.0	15.94
Carlos Boozer	80	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	7	-17	17.4	16.3	1.15	15.8	17.2	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 120, ATL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
MIA 100, NJN 77	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
CHI 115, BKN 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	94.0%