inpredictable
Powered by Blogger.
NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Milwaukee Bucks 83 Excitement4.5 [941] MVPLeBron James (MIA): +10.8%
Miami Heat 94 Comeback1.1 [1087] LVPMonta Ellis (MIL): -15.0%


Milwaukee Bucks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.03-0.00-0.00667%0.041-0.0100%0.00
Brandon Jennings0.030,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.16-0.030.101679%0.134-0.106100%0.02
John Henson0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01-0.000.00-0.011100%0.021-0.0100%0.00
Ish Smith-0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.020.00-0.02250%-0.0010.0000%0.00
JJ Redick-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.050.00-0.04933%0.011-0.0200%0.00
Gustavo Ayon-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.040.00-0.0200%-0.021-0.0020%-0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.020.00-0.000.02944%-0.0200.0000%0.00
Ersan Ilyasova-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.03-0.010.00540%-0.011-0.0300%0.00
Marquis Daniels-0.090,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09-0.07-0.02-0.01932%-0.061-0.03425%-0.01
Larry Sanders-0.110,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.06-0.030.021040%-0.052-0.0500%0.00
Monta Ellis-0.150,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15-0.12-0.06-0.03844%0.026-0.17250%-0.01

Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
LeBron James0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.110.150.020.071674%0.193-0.096100%0.03
James Jones0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.050.020.01-0.02650%0.0500.0000%0.00
Chris Andersen0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.040.030.01-0.00764%0.061-0.0200%0.00
Mario Chalmers0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.010.02-0.01462%0.051-0.0200%0.00
Norris Cole0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.01-0.020.01-0.02952%0.073-0.063100%0.01
Juwan Howard0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.020.00-0.0200%0.0010.0000%0.00
Jarvis Varnado0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.020.00-0.0200%0.0010.0000%0.00
Udonis Haslem0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.00-0.010.001050%0.011-0.0200%0.00
Shane Battier0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.02-0.010.00530%-0.0300.0000%0.00
Mike Miller0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.04-0.020.01736%-0.031-0.0300%0.00
Ray Allen0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.02-0.021341%-0.023-0.061100%0.01
Rashard Lewis0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.11-0.00-0.031127%-0.052-0.0400%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game24.72.527.616.623.81.727.3124.1
league avg24.82.329.514.026.82.333.1134.3
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MIA +14.6%
MIA +9.8%
MIA +13.9%
MIA +7.9%
MIA +3.9%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMILMIANBAMILMIANBA
this game13.916.515.488.398.9104.1
season14.715.7101.6110.2
opponent15.915.3102.4103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIL15.213.613.713.413.9
MIA17.515.214.019.916.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
JJ Redick50490.05-0.550.590.021-121313.614.4-0.8016.816.30.47
Gustavo Ayon22200.00-0.500.51-0.114-151910.914.9-3.9516.916.40.54
Ish Smith89-0.00-0.500.50-0.186-17239.514.3-4.8520.416.14.33
Luc Mbah a Moute6163-0.01-0.490.49-0.217-182512.716.3-3.6017.714.23.43
John Henson1415-0.08-0.420.340.01-3-8513.114.1-1.0217.716.31.35
Mike Dunleavy5453-0.11-0.390.28-0.141-121312.915.3-2.4216.616.40.18
Monta Ellis5556-0.34-0.16-0.19-0.08-9-2-714.912.62.3015.817.6-1.76
Ersan Ilyasova4142-0.40-0.10-0.310.01-143-1715.312.92.4115.617.3-1.71
Larry Sanders5759-0.43-0.07-0.37-0.08-121-1315.311.83.5016.416.8-0.45
Marquis Daniels3838-0.48-0.02-0.46-0.13-121-1315.213.12.1816.016.9-0.83
Brandon Jennings7071-0.690.19-0.880.01-2413-3714.412.71.6516.018.2-2.19

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Mario Chalmers54540.54-0.040.58-0.0721-103116.117.0-0.9215.112.32.76
LeBron James57570.52-0.020.55-0.0921-103116.217.0-0.8315.112.12.97
Udonis Haslem46450.490.010.480.0216-52116.316.8-0.5115.013.02.00
Mike Miller42410.400.100.31-0.0114-31715.617.3-1.7115.312.92.41
Shane Battier40400.400.100.30-0.0114-31715.317.4-2.0315.612.72.90
Rashard Lewis55540.100.40-0.300.19-314-1717.415.32.0312.715.6-2.90
Ray Allen48490.100.40-0.310.07110-917.116.01.1313.414.5-1.15
Chris Andersen43440.020.48-0.460.05-112-1316.916.20.6113.514.3-0.78
Juwan Howard540.000.50-0.500.12-415-1919.216.42.826.714.3-7.51
Jarvis Varnado540.000.50-0.500.12-415-1919.216.42.826.714.3-7.51
James Jones3837-0.020.52-0.550.27-1021-3117.016.20.8312.115.1-2.97
Norris Cole4241-0.050.55-0.610.24-1021-3116.716.40.2512.415.1-2.74


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
SAC 79, WAS 920.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,196.1%
LAC 70, SAS 920.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,195.7%
LAL 98, IND 1180.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.81,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,195.4%