NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	86		Excitement	7.7 [297]		MVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (CHI): +16.2%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	4.3 [560]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -31.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle O'Quinn	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,-0.03	0.10	-0.14	-0.00	17	71%	0.27	4	-0.30	4	100%	0.03
Doron Lamb	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	23%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
DeQuan Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	11	38%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	17	33%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.31	-0.02	-0.27	0.02	14	57%	-0.04	4	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	3	117%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.07	-0.01	17	56%	0.20	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	68%	0.13	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	18	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	13	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.17	-0.10	0.00	16	37%	-0.08	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.5	23.2	14.8	26.3	2.4	33.3	130.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +17.7%

CHI +0.7%

ORL -18.1%

CHI +32.5%

CHI +17.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.4	17.2	15.4	96.6	98.9	104.1
season	15.5	16.6		100.3	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.1	15.3	14.5	19.1	15.4
CHI	17.6	16.0	18.2	16.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	46	46	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.06	1	-2	3	14.7	16.1	-1.40	18.3	15.9	2.40
Kyle O'Quinn	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	0	-1	16.9	15.1	1.82	19.8	16.7	3.04
Maurice Harkless	16	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	2	-5	14.9	15.5	-0.53	19.7	16.7	3.01
E'Twaun Moore	27	25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	7	-15	15.9	15.1	0.74	16.6	17.4	-0.81
Beno Udrih	65	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-5	9	15.5	14.9	0.62	17.4	16.5	0.91
Tobias Harris	83	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-3	5	15.2	17.2	-1.93	17.0	19.0	-1.95
Doron Lamb	52	52	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.53	3	-4	7	15.2	15.7	-0.52	16.8	17.8	-1.01
Nikola Vucevic	76	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.50	0	-1	1	15.1	16.9	-1.82	16.7	19.8	-3.04
DeQuan Jones	67	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.53	-3	2	-5	15.9	13.8	2.12	16.3	19.9	-3.51

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	43	42	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.76	8	-7	15	15.7	18.6	-2.99	16.5	14.3	2.23
Luol Deng	75	76	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.41	4	-3	7	17.6	14.6	3.01	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	78	79	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.50	-4	5	-9	17.1	17.8	-0.70	15.4	15.2	0.19
Nazr Mohammed	57	57	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	2	-3	18.2	15.4	2.77	14.8	16.4	-1.62
Nate Robinson	52	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	-1	3	16.3	18.5	-2.18	15.6	14.9	0.71
Carlos Boozer	72	74	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	0	1	17.0	18.1	-1.15	15.3	15.7	-0.44
Kirk Hinrich	63	63	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.16	-5	6	-11	17.9	15.4	2.49	14.9	16.4	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.54,0.73,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.74,1	91.4%
DAL 92, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.53,0.79,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.92,1	91.1%
DAL 70, LAL 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.67,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.84,1	91.1%