NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	10.0 [65]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +33.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	13.2 [70]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -31.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.34	0.14	0.21	0.01	16	67%	0.34	0	0.00	4	100%	0.08
Josh Smith	0.26	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.26	0.11	0.17	0.02	17	59%	0.26	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.04
Anthony Tolliver	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	2	125%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	62%	0.11	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.13
Devin Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.04	0.01	12	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Shelvin Mack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.04	-0.02	13	47%	0.08	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
John Jenkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.10	-0.01	7	64%	0.08	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	2	60%	0.02	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.07	0.00	6	83%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.27,0.39,0.39,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	15	62%	0.32	4	-0.30	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	16	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.07
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	11	39%	0.01	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.11	-0.19	0.01	15	34%	-0.12	3	-0.19	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	1.7	26.1	14.7	22.9	1.5	37.3	124.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +38.0%

ATL +27.3%

MIL -46.9%

ATL +32.8%

MIL -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.4	15.4	109.5	103.1	104.1
season	15.1	14.7		102.6	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	16.2	16.9	14.1	15.7
MIL	14.9	14.3	13.1	15.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	34	34	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.58	12	-7	19	15.6	15.8	-0.20	15.4	13.9	1.45
Anthony Tolliver	30	32	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-3	11	14.7	16.2	-1.58	14.2	14.5	-0.25
Johan Petro	35	36	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-5	15	16.3	15.4	0.90	15.2	13.9	1.33
Al Horford	82	82	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	4	-3	15.7	16.3	-0.65	14.7	12.6	2.16
Shelvin Mack	8	7	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	1	3	17.2	15.6	1.64	17.0	14.2	2.79
Jeff Teague	73	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	7	-9	15.6	16.3	-0.74	13.7	17.0	-3.29
Josh Smith	73	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	6	-7	15.6	16.3	-0.74	13.7	17.0	-3.29
John Jenkins	18	18	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	2	1	14.8	16.0	-1.20	14.7	14.3	0.38
Devin Harris	57	57	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	7	-9	16.3	14.9	1.46	14.9	13.7	1.26
Kyle Korver	65	66	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.21	-8	13	-21	16.1	15.0	1.04	14.1	15.2	-1.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	31	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.3	0.48	15.0	16.1	-1.16
Ekpe Udoh	38	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	1	-7	14.6	14.3	0.23	16.7	15.2	1.53
Larry Sanders	66	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.35	5	-10	15	13.9	15.5	-1.53	15.3	16.8	-1.52
Samuel Dalembert	30	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	3	-11	16.4	13.5	2.84	16.8	15.3	1.46
Mike Dunleavy	43	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	1	-7	14.6	14.3	0.26	16.6	15.1	1.52
Ersan Ilyasova	56	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-6	7	14.0	15.0	-0.96	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Brandon Jennings	85	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-5	5	14.3	15.0	-0.66	15.7	15.7	0.02
Monta Ellis	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	14.2	15.3	-1.07	15.2	18.2	-3.03
JJ Redick	52	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	1	-7	14.3	14.5	-0.20	15.7	15.7	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.39,0.39,0.72,0.86,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 93, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.19,0.28,0.53,0.46,0.59,0.74,0	91.2%
NYK 93, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.29,0.4,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.63,0	89.9%
MIL 84, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.41,0.6,0.52,0.72,0.67,0.74,0	89.8%