NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	9.0 [126]		MVP	Jeff Green (BOS): +31.2%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	22.4 [76]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -24.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.14	0.17	0.01	10	81%	0.36	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
LeBron James	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,-0.08,-0.13,0.1	0.05	0.11	0.06	29	58%	0.24	5	-0.14	6	67%	-0.05
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24	-0.03	-0.20	0.02	15	46%	-0.12	2	-0.12	5	40%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.31	0.31	0.33	-0.00	0.01	21	78%	0.35	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	10	65%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.13	0.08	-0.01	11	32%	0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.07
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	6	69%	0.09	4	-0.23	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.15	0.01	5	60%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	11	61%	0.01	7	-0.17	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.0	38.0	17.8	32.4	2.8	42.0	162.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +12.3%

BOS -3.1%

MIA +37.9%

MIA +1.8%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.9	13.8	15.4	108.2	106.2	104.1
season	15.7	14.9		110.2	101.2
opponent	16.2	15.9		101.7	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	14.0	15.1	17.5	15.9
BOS	13.8	13.2	13.1	15.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	74	75	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.40	20	-18	38	15.6	17.1	-1.53	13.9	13.2	0.76
Mario Chalmers	75	73	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.47	14	-12	26	15.4	17.6	-2.16	14.2	12.4	1.86
LeBron James	86	87	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.45	13	-11	24	15.3	20.8	-5.53	13.6	15.6	-2.04
Dwyane Wade	70	71	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.34	13	-11	24	15.9	15.9	0.09	14.5	11.9	2.58
Ray Allen	59	59	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.40	-5	7	-12	16.9	14.3	2.63	13.7	13.9	-0.29
Udonis Haslem	34	35	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	-1	4	16.4	15.6	0.81	14.1	13.6	0.58
Shane Battier	36	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.16	-15	17	-32	16.2	15.7	0.53	13.2	14.1	-0.92
Norris Cole	29	31	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.00	-15	17	-32	15.4	16.1	-0.72	12.1	14.5	-2.42
Chris Andersen	22	22	-0.51	1.01	-1.51	0.02	-18	20	-38	17.7	15.4	2.34	13.2	13.9	-0.76

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	35	35	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.12	6	-8	14	14.4	13.4	0.94	16.8	15.4	1.38
Jordan Crawford	31	33	0.28	-0.78	1.05	0.16	4	-6	10	14.7	13.3	1.38	16.6	15.6	1.04
Courtney Lee	80	79	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.25	-4	2	-6	14.1	12.1	2.08	15.9	15.9	0.04
Jeff Green	77	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.51	3	-5	8	13.9	13.3	0.60	16.8	11.9	4.82
Jason Terry	51	52	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.73	4	-6	10	13.6	13.9	-0.27	15.4	16.5	-1.07
Brandon Bass	62	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.38	-8	6	-14	13.4	14.4	-0.94	15.8	16.0	-0.18
Avery Bradley	66	64	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.60	-6	4	-10	13.3	14.7	-1.38	15.6	16.6	-1.04
Paul Pierce	83	82	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.52	-9	7	-16	13.4	16.1	-2.69	15.1	20.5	-5.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.74,0.66,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.9,0.81,0.86,0.75,0.72,0.45,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 108, OKC 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.57,0.15,0	90.8%
ATL 92, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.46,0.45,0.27,0	89.1%
OKC 100, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.74,0	88.8%