NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	4.7 [890]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +25.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	1.1 [1096]		LVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): -7.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.19	0.03	-0.03	16	80%	0.28	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.02	4	90%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LeBron James	0.05	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	24	53%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	17	51%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	11	56%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.03	20	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	15	57%	0.04	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	11	32%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	25.3	15.4	27.3	2.5	28.6	122.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.1%

MIL -1.8%

MIL -7.5%

MIL -0.3%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.4	118.9	105.6	104.1
season	15.7	14.7		110.2	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.9	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	14.9	15.6	19.2	16.3
MIL	15.8	16.4	16.4	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	63	62	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.01	21	-8	29	15.7	17.5	-1.74	16.0	15.8	0.19
Chris Bosh	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.01	14	-1	15	16.3	16.3	0.01	15.9	15.9	0.05
Mario Chalmers	50	51	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	1	11	15.6	17.1	-1.50	16.3	15.3	0.99
Udonis Haslem	42	42	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	2	9	14.9	17.4	-2.51	15.8	16.0	-0.19
LeBron James	74	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	8	-3	16.2	16.6	-0.36	15.7	16.7	-0.95
Shane Battier	41	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	12	-11	17.6	15.2	2.42	15.9	15.9	0.02
Ray Allen	49	48	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	13	-13	17.5	14.8	2.64	15.8	16.0	-0.17
Chris Andersen	30	31	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	13	-13	16.3	16.2	0.10	16.0	15.9	0.14
Mike Miller	10	11	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	8	-3	15.5	16.4	-0.86	16.1	15.9	0.21
Norris Cole	24	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	17	-21	17.1	16.0	1.11	15.5	16.1	-0.56

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	14.5	15.9	-1.44	16.3	16.3	0.07
John Henson	14	15	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-10	7	18.0	15.5	2.48	15.3	16.5	-1.12
Ekpe Udoh	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-8	3	15.8	16.0	-0.24	17.0	15.8	1.23
Mike Dunleavy	32	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-6	-1	15.7	16.1	-0.40	16.5	16.1	0.37
Marquis Daniels	49	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-6	-1	16.2	15.5	0.70	15.5	17.3	-1.84
JJ Redick	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-6	-1	15.6	16.3	-0.71	16.7	15.8	0.86
Monta Ellis	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	15.9	16.0	-0.08	16.3	16.2	0.10
Larry Sanders	53	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	16.1	15.7	0.36	15.8	17.0	-1.20
Ersan Ilyasova	77	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	15.5	18.6	-3.09	16.4	15.1	1.37
Brandon Jennings	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	-1	-11	16.1	15.0	1.08	16.4	15.5	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.2,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 123, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
CHI 103, CHH 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
CHA 96, ATL 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%