NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	118		Excitement	11.4 [30]		MVP	Kevin Martin (OKC): +25.7%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	2.7 [399]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -37.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.09	0.16	0.00	10	82%	0.34	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	11	57%	0.12	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
Kevin Durant	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	20	61%	0.23	5	-0.13	21	95%	0.11
DeAndre Liggins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.07	4	70%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.17,-0.35,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	0.05	26	52%	0.22	7	-0.33	17	88%	0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	0.00	-0.12	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.31	-0.08	-0.23	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.28	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.14,0.22,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.00	17	63%	0.32	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.03	0.17	-0.01	11	60%	0.27	2	-0.06	8	62%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	0.00	8	60%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	12	53%	0.16	3	-0.09	6	33%	-0.18
Kosta Koufos	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.19	-0.22	-0.03	13	37%	-0.09	7	-0.29	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	32.3	15.7	30.7	1.6	36.2	1.8	21.0	164.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +2.4%

OKC -0.8%

DEN +42.0%

DEN +24.7%

OKC -18.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	13.9	15.4	106.3	108.0	104.1
season	14.8	14.4		109.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	15.4	13.7	17.5	13.0	12.4	14.6
DEN	14.0	15.1	11.3	14.1	16.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	5	4	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.09	3	-6	9	11.2	14.8	-3.61	12.5	13.9	-1.43
Kendrick Perkins	63	64	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-8	13	15.6	13.4	2.24	13.7	14.1	-0.40
Reggie Jackson	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-2	1	15.0	14.6	0.39	12.0	14.1	-2.10
Kevin Martin	78	81	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.39	7	-10	17	13.6	17.2	-3.69	14.6	12.0	2.55
DeAndre Liggins	3	4	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	2	-7	15.3	14.6	0.70	11.7	14.0	-2.20
Serge Ibaka	87	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-3	3	14.8	14.2	0.56	14.1	13.2	0.85
Kevin Durant	102	101	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-2	1	14.9	11.4	3.49	13.9	14.1	-0.24
Russell Westbrook	101	101	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-2	1	14.5	15.7	-1.16	14.0	12.3	1.78
Thabo Sefolosha	61	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.23	-13	10	-23	15.4	13.7	1.73	13.5	14.4	-0.95
Nick Collison	43	43	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.36	-9	6	-15	13.7	15.2	-1.55	13.5	14.1	-0.55

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	93	90	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.48	6	-3	9	13.9	13.8	0.10	15.2	12.2	3.03
Kenneth Faried	84	83	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-4	11	13.5	14.9	-1.31	15.7	11.7	3.97
Andre Iguodala	58	57	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-3	9	12.6	15.2	-2.57	15.5	13.7	1.84
Kosta Koufos	39	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	-1	5	14.0	13.8	0.19	16.2	13.7	2.53
Wilson Chandler	36	36	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.13	4	-1	5	13.2	14.2	-0.92	13.5	15.2	-1.74
Danilo Gallinari	77	78	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.28	-2	5	-7	13.9	13.8	0.11	15.2	13.2	2.00
Corey Brewer	74	73	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.33	-5	8	-13	14.7	12.3	2.32	12.8	18.3	-5.54
Andre Miller	60	60	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.13	-3	6	-9	14.8	12.8	1.96	13.1	16.5	-3.44
JaVale McGee	39	37	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	3	-3	13.9	13.9	-0.00	13.6	15.2	-1.62
Timofey Mozgov	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	14.0	-14.00	22.0	14.6	7.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.97,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.63,0.43,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 139, UTA 140	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.83,0.79,0.62,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.85,0.95,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	90.1%
ATL 102, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.85,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	89.8%
DEN 94, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.84,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.27,1	88.8%