NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	9.5 [88]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +22.4%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	6.0 [445]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -20.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.24,0.24,0.22	0.00	0.22	-0.01	18	51%	0.33	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.08
DeQuan Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	-0.01	13	59%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Nicholson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	10	60%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.02	0.04	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.26,-0.21	-0.12	-0.14	-0.06	14	37%	-0.10	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.15	0.01	19	44%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	12	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.03
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.03	0.02	10	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	10	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.01,-0.25,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	13	37%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.14
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	17	40%	-0.11	2	-0.09	6	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.7	30.3	16.3	23.3	2.5	38.9	135.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -46.7%

DEN +0.9%

DEN +86.8%

ORL -0.6%

DEN +9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	13.9	15.4	108.2	111.3	104.1
season	15.5	14.4		100.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.0	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.0	15.7	15.7	14.8	15.8
DEN	14.3	13.1	16.4	12.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	64	64	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.05	11	-14	25	16.0	15.5	0.50	14.7	12.5	2.20
Ish Smith	17	18	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-9	15	15.9	15.7	0.19	14.8	13.7	1.14
Maurice Harkless	25	24	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-7	11	14.8	16.1	-1.33	12.6	14.3	-1.70
Kyle O'Quinn	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-3	3	16.5	15.6	0.90	15.8	13.4	2.38
DeQuan Jones	56	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	1	-5	15.2	16.5	-1.26	12.9	15.4	-2.54
JJ Redick	64	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.58	10	-13	23	15.3	16.8	-1.48	14.3	13.1	1.24
Andrew Nicholson	38	39	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	5	-13	17.0	15.0	2.04	14.1	13.8	0.28
Jameer Nelson	80	79	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.43	-9	6	-15	15.7	15.9	-0.19	13.7	14.8	-1.14
Josh McRoberts	55	53	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	11	-25	15.9	15.7	0.21	13.4	14.5	-1.04
Arron Afflalo	66	67	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.44	-11	8	-19	15.9	15.5	0.44	13.9	14.0	-0.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	73	72	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.55	12	-9	21	13.9	13.9	-0.01	15.8	15.8	0.03
Andre Miller	58	59	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.39	12	-9	21	13.2	15.0	-1.87	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Andre Iguodala	66	66	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	-2	7	13.6	14.6	-1.04	15.5	16.4	-0.84
Ty Lawson	70	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-2	7	13.6	14.6	-0.95	15.9	15.6	0.30
Kenneth Faried	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.46	-4	7	-11	14.1	13.3	0.77	15.9	15.4	0.46
Kosta Koufos	41	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	3	-3	14.7	13.3	1.43	16.6	15.2	1.35
Corey Brewer	56	56	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.04	-2	5	-7	13.4	14.6	-1.26	15.5	16.2	-0.76
JaVale McGee	35	36	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.14	-6	9	-15	14.6	13.5	1.13	15.9	15.7	0.17
Evan Fournier	15	15	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.11	-7	10	-17	16.6	13.4	3.19	15.6	15.8	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.62,0.39,0.43,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 71, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.96,1	90.8%
POR 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.53,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	90.6%
POR 103, MEM 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.9,1	90.1%