NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	6.0 [595]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +23.2%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	2.2 [209]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -12.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.08	-0.02	9	65%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.03	17	69%	0.20	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	47%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	11	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	6	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	14	68%	0.29	2	-0.06	16	81%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.07	0.05	11	71%	0.07	3	-0.10	9	78%	-0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	3.3	26.5	18.5	27.3	3.5	47.5	151.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +22.6%

MIA -6.2%

CHI +35.7%

MIA -3.4%

CHI +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.4	16.1	15.4	111.6	103.5	104.1
season	16.6	15.7		101.7	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.2		102.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	18.4	17.9	18.3	17.4
MIA	16.2	16.7	18.1	13.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	74	75	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.22	19	-12	31	17.6	15.9	1.72	16.5	13.2	3.34
Luol Deng	77	78	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.28	12	-5	17	17.2	18.9	-1.67	16.1	16.1	-0.04
Kirk Hinrich	55	54	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-6	19	16.1	19.7	-3.57	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Jimmy Butler	32	32	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	0	7	16.8	17.7	-0.93	15.1	16.7	-1.59
Taj Gibson	28	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	4	-1	18.6	16.8	1.85	16.4	15.9	0.48
Richard Hamilton	34	33	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	9	-11	16.3	18.1	-1.82	16.0	16.1	-0.10
Joakim Noah	70	68	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.26	-8	15	-23	16.6	20.7	-4.04	15.5	18.4	-2.90
Marco Belinelli	29	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	19.8	16.2	3.62	17.3	15.5	1.78
Nate Robinson	31	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	13	-19	19.7	16.1	3.57	16.2	16.0	0.20

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	17	18	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-13	19	16.2	16.1	0.18	17.4	17.4	-0.01
Norris Cole	26	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.10	1	-8	9	17.1	15.6	1.47	21.3	15.7	5.66
Chris Bosh	70	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.40	10	-17	27	15.5	18.7	-3.19	17.6	16.3	1.29
Shane Battier	46	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-9	11	15.2	17.1	-1.93	18.2	16.5	1.63
Udonis Haslem	37	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	17.1	15.3	1.73	15.9	18.5	-2.59
Joel Anthony	11	10	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	5	-17	19.1	15.7	3.44	18.1	17.3	0.80
Ray Allen	41	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	15.6	16.6	-0.97	18.1	16.8	1.32
Mario Chalmers	46	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	4	-15	17.0	15.0	2.04	16.3	18.6	-2.30
Dwyane Wade	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-4	1	15.4	18.0	-2.59	16.7	19.3	-2.61
LeBron James	74	74	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.23	-18	11	-29	16.2	15.6	0.59	16.9	20.7	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 113, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.2,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.3%
LAC 86, ORL 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.3%
ATL 80, NYK 71	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.2%