NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	6.5 [500]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +24.9%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	1.8 [696]		LVP	Danny Green (SAS): -18.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.15	-0.00	0.03	8	94%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	48%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.05	25	52%	0.03	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
Gary Neal	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	15	47%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Danny Green	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	0.00	10	15%	-0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.13	-0.01	21	56%	0.27	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	11	59%	0.10	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	9	78%	0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	11	61%	0.11	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	15	35%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	10	40%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	30.2	15.7	30.2	2.4	30.4	133.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.4%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +12.0%

DEN +6.9%

SAS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	12.4	15.4	99.1	103.7	104.1
season	15.2	14.4		106.4	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.1		104.0	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	14.8	12.8	15.9	14.4
DEN	11.2	12.4	10.1	17.6	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	34	33	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-17	28	15.4	13.9	1.46	15.4	11.1	4.24
Matt Bonner	9	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	15.3	14.3	1.04	10.2	12.7	-2.49
Nando De Colo	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-4	2	15.6	14.2	1.43	9.2	13.0	-3.72
Stephen Jackson	48	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-6	6	14.6	14.2	0.33	12.7	12.2	0.54
Gary Neal	30	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.09	-9	3	-12	14.6	14.3	0.25	11.7	12.7	-1.08
Tiago Splitter	59	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	2	-10	13.8	15.1	-1.31	10.6	14.5	-3.88
Boris Diaw	55	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-5	4	14.7	14.1	0.63	12.4	12.4	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	66	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-3	0	14.0	15.0	-1.04	12.2	12.8	-0.57
Tim Duncan	85	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-6	6	14.6	13.4	1.28	13.8	7.7	6.11
Tony Parker	76	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-4	2	14.0	15.4	-1.37	13.2	10.4	2.79
Danny Green	56	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	7	-20	13.9	14.9	-0.95	11.2	13.7	-2.50

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	79	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-4	14	12.6	12.0	0.62	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Andre Iguodala	86	84	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	-3	12	12.2	13.4	-1.19	14.1	15.3	-1.17
Kenneth Faried	61	62	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.25	3	3	0	13.0	11.7	1.30	15.6	12.8	2.81
Corey Brewer	67	64	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	4	-2	12.0	13.0	-0.98	14.9	13.6	1.34
Kosta Koufos	67	67	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	4	-2	13.6	10.5	3.07	14.0	15.0	-0.95
Ty Lawson	83	82	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	13.8	7.8	6.01	14.2	14.9	-0.65
Andre Miller	52	53	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	3	0	10.7	14.0	-3.36	14.3	14.5	-0.16
Timofey Mozgov	16	15	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	9.6	12.9	-3.35	15.2	14.2	0.95
JaVale McGee	29	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	7	-8	10.4	13.2	-2.79	13.1	14.9	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 99, GSW 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	94.5%
VAN 105, NJN 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.2%
MIN 93, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1	93.9%