NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	5.9 [606]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +14.1%
Los Angeles Clippers	102		Comeback	1.3 [1140]		LVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): -12.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	17	63%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	7	61%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	11	68%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
John Lucas III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	16	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	42%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.03	6	33%	-0.05	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	7	21%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.02	11	68%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	10	64%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.06	0.04	9	70%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	6	33%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	44%	0.00	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	0.00	0.02	7	28%	-0.08	2	-0.04	11	45%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.4	29.4	15.4	29.3	0.3	29.2	133.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +21.4%

LAC +4.1%

LAC +9.3%

LAC +13.8%

LAC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	LAC	NBA	TOR	LAC	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.4	96.5	117.2	104.1
season	16.1	15.6		104.4	109.0
opponent	15.7	15.3		102.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.6	14.8	18.1	19.6	17.5
LAC	14.5	17.9	14.6	16.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	30	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-20	21	18.0	17.2	0.84	17.5	14.8	2.69
John Lucas III	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	20.0	17.5	2.54	25.0	15.7	9.29
Andrea Bargnani	59	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.16	-10	-9	-1	18.3	15.8	2.44	15.2	17.1	-1.90
Linas Kleiza	53	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-13	7	17.5	17.4	0.10	16.2	15.2	0.97
Kyle Lowry	54	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.19	-14	-5	-9	18.4	16.0	2.37	16.5	14.6	1.88
Jose Calderon	32	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-14	9	16.0	18.4	-2.37	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Terrence Ross	43	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	-5	-9	16.6	18.4	-1.86	15.2	16.4	-1.25
Ed Davis	30	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-10	1	16.2	18.2	-2.03	17.3	15.0	2.32
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	-1	-17	18.0	14.3	3.69	15.8	16.0	-0.21
Amir Johnson	53	52	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.02	-20	1	-21	17.1	18.2	-1.08	14.6	17.7	-3.08

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	36	35	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.16	21	-2	23	16.1	15.6	0.41	17.6	17.4	0.24
Lamar Odom	39	38	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.11	18	1	17	15.4	16.1	-0.69	17.1	17.8	-0.69
Ronny Turiaf	34	34	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	2	15	15.7	15.9	-0.18	17.5	17.5	0.07
Matt Barnes	39	38	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	4	11	16.6	15.2	1.45	17.5	17.5	0.02
Jamal Crawford	59	59	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	10	-1	16.0	15.5	0.47	16.5	19.6	-3.07
Willie Green	28	27	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.11	10	9	1	15.5	16.0	-0.47	19.6	16.5	3.07
Caron Butler	48	48	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	15	-11	15.2	16.6	-1.45	17.5	17.5	-0.02
Blake Griffin	53	52	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	17	-15	15.9	15.7	0.18	17.5	17.5	-0.07
DeAndre Jordan	48	48	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	18	-17	16.1	15.4	0.69	17.8	17.1	0.69
Chris Paul	51	51	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	21	-23	15.6	16.1	-0.41	17.4	17.6	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.83,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.7%
HOU 89, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
POR 102, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.98,1	93.5%