NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	9.8 [70]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +15.3%
Charlotte Bobcats	98		Comeback	8.3 [176]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -25.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.1	0.12	-0.03	-0.01	17	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Ed Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dominic McGuire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.14,-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	13	48%	-0.02	5	-0.14	3	67%	-0.07
Jose Calderon	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2	-0.05	-0.15	-0.00	8	41%	-0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.26	0.04	-0.30	-0.00	15	57%	-0.17	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.14	-0.01	16	54%	0.30	4	-0.15	3	67%	0.02
Jeff Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.00	8	61%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.05	0.05	-0.12	0.16	-0.02	19	33%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	79%	0.16	2	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Byron Mullens	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	14	31%	-0.16	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.7	34.0	13.8	24.1	1.8	37.8	140.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +41.1%

CHA +29.4%

TOR -2.0%

TOR -13.3%

TOR -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.4	106.6	104.3	104.1
season	16.1	15.6		104.4	99.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		109.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.7	15.0	14.7	16.1	15.3
CHA	17.0	13.8	14.1	19.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	65	67	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.10	8	-9	17	15.7	14.4	1.31	16.1	15.0	1.13
Jose Calderon	42	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-5	9	14.9	15.7	-0.86	16.7	15.0	1.74
DeMar DeRozan	72	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-4	7	15.7	14.1	1.60	15.5	16.7	-1.12
Andrea Bargnani	63	65	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-5	9	15.6	14.7	0.92	15.6	16.2	-0.53
Ed Davis	24	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	6	-13	15.2	15.4	-0.15	14.4	16.3	-1.97
Linas Kleiza	24	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	6	-13	14.8	15.5	-0.72	14.8	16.2	-1.43
Terrence Ross	29	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	6	-13	13.7	16.1	-2.44	17.1	15.2	1.85
Kyle Lowry	69	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-4	7	15.7	14.1	1.62	15.1	18.1	-3.07
Dominic McGuire	46	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	3	-7	15.5	15.1	0.45	17.0	14.6	2.43
Amir Johnson	21	22	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	1	-3	14.3	15.6	-1.28	15.3	16.0	-0.70

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	52	49	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.59	11	-10	21	15.0	16.8	-1.77	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Ramon Sessions	66	63	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-8	17	15.4	16.7	-1.34	15.0	16.0	-0.93
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	58	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	3	-5	16.6	14.5	2.17	15.7	14.7	0.98
Ben Gordon	44	43	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	-8	17	17.2	14.6	2.58	14.9	15.7	-0.82
Jeff Taylor	57	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.52	-8	9	-17	16.2	15.2	1.02	15.8	14.5	1.35
Kemba Walker	78	75	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.35	-5	6	-11	15.3	18.2	-2.94	15.3	15.2	0.16
Hakim Warrick	15	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	1	-1	15.2	15.9	-0.72	14.3	15.5	-1.22
Brendan Haywood	51	48	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	5	-9	15.8	15.8	0.03	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Byron Mullens	49	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	6	-11	15.5	16.2	-0.71	15.6	15.0	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.76,0.6,0.55,0.28,0.43,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 87, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.46,0.67,0.59,1	89.3%
POR 82, WAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.62,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	89.1%
LAC 100, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.75,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.27,1	89.1%