NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	7.2 [369]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +23.4%
Brooklyn Nets	107		Comeback	2.3 [762]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -12.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.16	0.07	-0.01	13	69%	0.23	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	7	61%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	19	62%	0.23	5	-0.18	7	86%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dominic McGuire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Landry Fields	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	12	54%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	5	20%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.11	0.01	17	55%	0.21	1	-0.02	15	73%	0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.07	0.08	0.00	9	83%	0.23	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
MarShon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	8	39%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	13	47%	0.04	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	14	53%	0.02	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	32.7	15.0	27.7	1.0	42.3	144.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +23.7%

BKN +13.1%

BKN +17.2%

TOR -6.7%

BKN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BKN	NBA	TOR	BKN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.0	15.4	101.0	107.0	104.1
season	16.1	16.5		104.4	106.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	13.6	12.7	14.5	14.0
BKN	14.3	14.1	16.6	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	12	13	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.02	6	-13	19	11.7	14.3	-2.54	16.4	14.7	1.64
Alan Anderson	26	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	-2	-3	13.0	14.3	-1.38	15.4	14.8	0.59
Ed Davis	25	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-5	3	15.7	13.4	2.33	16.8	14.3	2.45
Jonas Valanciunas	26	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-8	9	13.9	14.0	-0.08	15.6	14.8	0.82
Amir Johnson	32	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	0	-7	15.2	13.4	1.83	15.3	14.8	0.51
Landry Fields	49	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	13.6	14.4	-0.81	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Dominic McGuire	15	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	18.7	13.1	5.52	16.8	14.6	2.21
Aaron Gray	38	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	13.4	14.3	-0.86	15.4	14.7	0.70
Kyle Lowry	85	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	13.8	15.1	-1.27	14.3	18.6	-4.28
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-4	1	13.5	15.2	-1.70	13.9	17.7	-3.76
Andrea Bargnani	74	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-4	1	13.4	15.7	-2.33	14.5	16.2	-1.67
Jose Calderon	40	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	0	-7	14.8	13.4	1.38	16.2	14.1	2.13

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	82	81	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.23	13	-6	19	15.1	14.3	0.83	14.2	13.0	1.20
Deron Williams	83	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	5	-3	14.3	18.2	-3.88	13.7	15.3	-1.59
Kris Humphries	51	49	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	1	5	13.8	16.2	-2.44	14.0	14.0	-0.04
Brook Lopez	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	4	-1	15.8	13.6	2.14	14.6	12.9	1.76
Gerald Wallace	65	64	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.37	-2	9	-11	14.7	15.5	-0.85	13.2	15.5	-2.29
MarShon Brooks	32	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	2	3	17.6	13.7	3.92	16.0	12.9	3.12
CJ Watson	58	56	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	2	3	15.0	14.9	0.14	13.9	14.0	-0.08
Reggie Evans	33	34	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.08	-2	9	-11	14.8	15.0	-0.21	12.7	14.6	-1.90
Keith Bogans	4	3	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.07	3	4	-1	0.7	15.6	-14.80	8.0	14.2	-6.17
Andray Blatche	30	28	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	5	-3	16.5	14.3	2.15	14.3	13.9	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.86,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 88, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.84,1	92.5%
IND 100, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.65,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.76,0.95,1	92.3%
NYK 80, IND 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.67,0.93,1	92.1%