NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	75		Excitement	4.3 [750]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +17.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	91		Comeback	1.0 [1061]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -15.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.02	12	79%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	58%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Uzoh	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	3	0%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.01	0.08	5	67%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.03	-0.06	11	21%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	22	33%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.05	0.01	14	70%	0.23	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	-0.05	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.07	8	39%	0.02	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.07	10	65%	0.01	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	48%	0.04	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	32.4	15.7	27.8	1.8	29.0	132.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +28.9%

OKC +15.3%

TOR -10.3%

OKC +12.7%

OKC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	OKC	NBA	TOR	OKC	NBA
this game	17.5	14.5	15.6	83.3	101.1	102.8
season	16.5	14.7		98.9	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		101.9	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.1	18.9	19.4	18.4	17.5
OKC	13.6	13.0	15.6	16.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Anderson	35	36	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.23	-6	-10	4	17.7	17.4	0.36	14.4	14.6	-0.19
Aaron Gray	45	46	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.28	9	-25	34	17.9	17.2	0.69	15.3	13.6	1.78
Andrea Bargnani	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-15	14	16.1	18.1	-2.02	13.3	15.0	-1.68
Jamaal Magloire	17	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-17	18	20.0	16.9	3.05	11.2	15.2	-4.07
Jose Calderon	65	67	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.42	13	-29	42	18.1	16.0	2.11	14.3	15.0	-0.64
Amir Johnson	27	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-11	6	18.2	17.2	1.00	15.5	14.1	1.38
Gary Forbes	27	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-10	4	17.9	17.4	0.52	15.1	14.2	0.90
DeMar DeRozan	70	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-14	12	17.8	16.5	1.31	14.5	14.3	0.21
Linas Kleiza	19	17	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	-1	-14	19.8	16.9	2.87	14.8	14.4	0.35
Ed Davis	40	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.24	-23	7	-30	16.2	18.6	-2.43	14.6	14.4	0.13
Ben Uzoh	25	23	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.39	-29	13	-42	16.0	18.1	-2.11	15.0	14.3	0.64
James Johnson	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	0	-16	16.3	19.3	-3.01	14.5	14.5	-0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	51	50	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.00	21	-5	26	14.9	13.9	1.02	18.4	16.4	1.98
Nick Collison	38	39	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	0	16	15.8	13.5	2.32	18.3	16.9	1.34
Derek Fisher	40	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	0	16	15.7	13.5	2.24	17.6	17.4	0.18
Daequan Cook	33	33	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	0	16	15.8	13.7	2.16	19.0	16.6	2.38
Kevin Durant	59	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	8	0	13.7	15.9	-2.13	16.5	19.5	-2.92
Nazr Mohammed	14	15	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	9	-2	14.7	14.4	0.28	18.1	17.4	0.65
Russell Westbrook	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	16	-16	13.7	15.5	-1.77	17.2	18.0	-0.78
Thabo Sefolosha	55	55	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	18	-20	14.4	14.6	-0.15	17.8	17.0	0.81
Kendrick Perkins	47	47	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	19	-22	13.2	15.8	-2.60	17.2	17.9	-0.65
Lazar Hayward	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	15	-14	14.7	14.5	0.20	14.4	17.7	-3.31
Cole Aldrich	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	15	-14	14.7	14.5	0.20	14.4	17.7	-3.31
Royal Ivey	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	15	-14	15.0	14.5	0.54	16.3	17.6	-1.23
Serge Ibaka	46	46	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	18	-20	13.8	15.2	-1.42	16.9	18.2	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.84,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	94.8%
CLE 83, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
ORL 79, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%