NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	6.2 [460]		MVP	Corey Brewer (DEN): +14.1%
Charlotte Bobcats	88		Comeback	2.2 [270]		LVP	Byron Mullens (CHA): -16.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	11	68%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	12	61%	0.07	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Andre Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	52%	0.04	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	12	38%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Wilson Chandler	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	5	60%	0.06	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	11	54%	0.09	7	-0.18	4	75%	0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	12	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Derrick Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	18	47%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	5	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	20	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Byron Mullens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	10	20%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	30.0	13.8	28.9	2.3	27.7	128.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +71.3%

CHA -1.6%

CHA -2.4%

CHA -21.3%

DEN +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	13.2	15.9	15.6	100.0	88.9	102.8
season	14.5	16.3		107.5	94.1
opponent	15.0	15.8		108.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	13.3	11.8	13.5	13.2
CHA	14.5	17.4	15.3	16.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	82	80	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-1	13	13.2	13.2	-0.02	16.1	15.0	1.08
Andre Miller	51	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-2	15	14.0	12.4	1.64	15.9	15.8	0.07
Corey Brewer	52	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.00	13	-2	15	14.1	12.2	1.88	15.8	15.9	-0.08
Kosta Koufos	33	32	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	3	5	13.0	13.3	-0.29	15.6	16.0	-0.41
Al Harrington	66	64	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	7	-3	13.6	12.4	1.20	16.0	15.7	0.28
JaVale McGee	43	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	5	1	12.7	13.6	-0.89	16.6	15.2	1.34
Kenneth Faried	56	56	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	7	-3	13.2	13.2	0.06	15.3	16.6	-1.26
Ty Lawson	70	72	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	10	-9	12.5	14.9	-2.37	16.1	15.3	0.84
Wilson Chandler	42	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.15	-6	17	-23	12.3	13.9	-1.59	15.1	16.4	-1.36

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	16	17	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-16	21	16.8	15.7	1.13	12.6	13.3	-0.69
D.J. Augustin	49	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-11	11	15.5	16.2	-0.67	12.9	13.5	-0.67
DJ White	36	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-10	9	14.8	16.5	-1.71	12.6	13.6	-1.00
Corey Maggette	68	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-9	7	15.5	16.7	-1.22	12.8	14.2	-1.41
Gerald Henderson	70	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-9	7	15.9	15.7	0.25	13.1	13.6	-0.49
Eduardo Najera	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-5	-1	16.4	15.5	0.89	14.2	12.5	1.72
Derrick Brown	17	17	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-2	-7	16.8	15.7	1.08	13.8	13.1	0.73
Bismack Biyombo	61	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-3	-5	16.4	15.0	1.41	13.2	13.3	-0.09
Reggie Williams	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	16.0	15.8	0.23	13.9	12.7	1.23
Byron Mullens	43	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	1	-13	15.2	16.4	-1.25	13.1	13.3	-0.27
Kemba Walker	50	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	0	-11	16.2	15.5	0.67	13.5	12.9	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 95, PHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.9%
CHH 86, ATL 70	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%
GSW 113, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.44,0.37,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0	93.1%