NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	7.4 [282]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +30.2%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	3.3 [226]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -15.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.03	-0.02	19	59%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	73%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	16	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Al Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	11	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Corey Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	14	43%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	5	53%	0.02	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.13,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.11	0.21	0.02	14	65%	0.35	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.04
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	8	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Uzoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.03	12	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.07	-0.00	6	71%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	20	33%	-0.07	2	-0.08	11	45%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.7	31.8	15.6	28.3	2.0	31.0	137.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +32.6%

DEN -8.2%

TOR +23.8%

TOR +3.1%

DEN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	17.0	15.6	103.2	112.9	102.8
season	14.5	16.5		107.5	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.8		102.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.7	11.9	11.9	15.6	14.0
TOR	14.6	18.1	18.1	17.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	45	44	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-11	13	13.5	14.4	-0.88	17.9	16.2	1.64
Corey Brewer	28	27	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.07	-1	-8	7	17.2	12.6	4.65	16.3	17.3	-0.94
Timofey Mozgov	21	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-4	-1	14.3	13.9	0.47	16.4	17.2	-0.81
JaVale McGee	45	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-3	-3	15.0	13.0	2.00	17.7	16.4	1.25
Al Harrington	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-5	1	14.2	13.5	0.80	16.7	17.5	-0.75
Andre Miller	52	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	14.6	13.2	1.34	16.7	17.4	-0.70
Arron Afflalo	72	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	14.3	12.9	1.37	16.4	19.0	-2.68
Wilson Chandler	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	-1	-7	12.6	17.2	-4.65	17.3	16.3	0.94
Ty Lawson	77	78	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.31	-13	4	-17	12.6	20.4	-7.81	17.3	15.4	1.91

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	64	64	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.28	11	-2	13	17.7	15.3	2.41	14.5	12.7	1.81
Andrea Bargnani	70	70	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	1	7	17.6	15.2	2.37	13.1	16.6	-3.45
DeMar DeRozan	74	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	4	1	16.9	17.2	-0.26	13.1	17.3	-4.21
Ed Davis	36	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	2	5	17.0	17.0	-0.00	16.0	12.7	3.27
Alan Anderson	25	26	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	2	5	17.3	16.9	0.38	15.0	13.6	1.49
Amir Johnson	50	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	3	3	15.8	18.4	-2.55	14.1	13.8	0.33
Gary Forbes	36	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	8	-7	18.1	16.3	1.72	13.8	14.1	-0.27
Linas Kleiza	57	57	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	6	-3	15.8	18.9	-3.04	13.7	14.3	-0.60
Ben Uzoh	23	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	9	-9	16.0	17.3	-1.27	14.8	13.7	1.08
Aaron Gray	30	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	12	-15	17.6	16.7	0.89	13.3	14.3	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.28,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.47,0.61,0.81,0.83,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 106, CHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.67,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.9%
DEN 83, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.61,0.68,0.79,1,1,1	91.8%
NOH 67, DEN 76	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.44,0.38,0.28,0.41,0.66,0.6,0.8,0.78,0.95,1,1	91.8%