NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	8.1 [185]		MVP	Ryan Anderson (ORL): +18.5%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	3.2 [209]		LVP	Kyle Korver (CHI): -30.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.16,0.19	0.00	0.18	-0.00	9	55%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	15	60%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	4	64%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	0.03	-0.06	-0.01	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.08	5	100%	0.06
Glen Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.07	-0.09	0.01	19	60%	0.14	4	-0.17	10	70%	-0.04
Chris Duhon	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	8	50%	-0.09	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.03	0.03	7	87%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.02	0.03	20	62%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.01	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	9	25%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	22	35%	-0.20	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.18,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31	-0.31	-0.05	-0.24	0.02	10	39%	-0.29	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.8	30.6	19.6	27.2	3.4	40.3	148.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +61.6%

ORL +7.8%

ORL +18.5%

CHI -32.8%

CHI -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	16.2	15.6	111.2	106.8	102.8
season	16.2	16.0		102.8	104.7
opponent	15.9	15.8		97.0	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	16.5	18.0	15.4	16.3
CHI	15.2	16.2	18.0	15.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	37	37	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.56	3	2	1	15.4	16.9	-1.56	15.9	16.5	-0.57
Dwight Howard	78	77	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-8	21	16.0	18.6	-2.67	16.2	16.3	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	59	58	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.21	10	-5	15	16.8	15.3	1.45	16.2	16.3	-0.13
Hedo Turkoglu	73	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	3	-1	16.4	16.0	0.36	15.9	17.8	-1.88
Glen Davis	57	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	15.9	17.0	-1.11	16.6	15.7	0.89
Ryan Anderson	43	45	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.36	-6	11	-17	17.4	15.2	2.18	15.8	16.7	-0.83
Quentin Richardson	10	11	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	5	-5	18.7	16.0	2.71	18.7	15.9	2.83
Jason Richardson	58	57	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.14	5	0	5	16.4	16.1	0.25	16.4	15.9	0.54
Chris Duhon	30	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	10	-15	15.3	16.8	-1.45	16.3	16.2	0.13

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	20	20	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.02	6	-11	17	18.1	15.7	2.39	16.8	16.1	0.66
Jimmy Butler	18	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-9	13	14.4	16.7	-2.34	16.8	16.2	0.63
Omer Asik	15	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-2	-1	17.7	15.9	1.79	16.4	16.3	0.10
Carlos Boozer	64	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-5	5	16.4	15.8	0.57	16.1	16.7	-0.63
Kyle Korver	55	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.47	8	-13	21	15.6	17.3	-1.68	15.6	17.5	-1.89
Ronnie Brewer	33	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.11	-13	8	-21	17.3	15.6	1.68	17.5	15.6	1.89
Taj Gibson	31	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	2	-9	16.8	15.9	0.86	17.1	15.8	1.30
Joakim Noah	66	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-5	5	15.5	18.5	-3.00	16.0	17.0	-0.97
Luol Deng	70	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	4	-13	16.7	14.4	2.34	16.2	16.8	-0.63
Derrick Rose	68	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	6	-17	15.7	18.1	-2.39	16.1	16.8	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 103, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.54,0.31,0.27,0	89.9%
GSW 113, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.21,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.15,0.14,0.09,0	89.7%
POR 88, PHX 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.45,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.1,0	89.5%