NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	88		Excitement	5.0 [659]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +14.7%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.5 [898]		LVP	Jeremy Lin (NYK): -22.2%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.01	5	120%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	54%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jared Jeffries	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	20	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	7	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Landry Fields	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	7	65%	0.04	6	-0.13	6	83%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	7	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.24	-0.06	-0.08	11	29%	-0.05	8	-0.17	6	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	17	66%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	22	47%	0.05	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	16	53%	0.05	4	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.00	3	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	9	45%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	3.4	29.7	18.7	32.5	3.3	24.7	141.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +22.5%

NYK -3.1%

MIA +13.1%

MIA +15.9%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.6	91.7	106.2	102.8
season	14.9	15.5		102.3	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.8	100.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	15.8	14.8	14.9	14.4	15.0
MIA	12.3	14.6	16.4	16.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	27	26	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-19	24	15.9	14.7	1.19	15.6	14.8	0.79
Jared Jeffries	31	31	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-19	24	15.7	14.7	1.00	16.7	14.2	2.53
Steve Novak	37	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-16	18	15.6	14.6	0.92	15.7	14.6	1.10
Landry Fields	56	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-8	2	15.3	14.5	0.77	14.0	16.3	-2.29
J.R. Smith	57	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-7	0	15.2	14.8	0.39	16.2	13.4	2.77
Amar'e Stoudemire	62	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	0	-14	14.2	16.4	-2.19	13.7	17.5	-3.75
Carmelo Anthony	70	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	1	-16	14.8	15.6	-0.84	14.8	15.5	-0.70
Tyson Chandler	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.05	-21	7	-28	14.9	15.2	-0.27	15.1	14.8	0.22
Jeremy Lin	69	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.02	-19	5	-24	14.7	15.9	-1.19	14.8	15.6	-0.79

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	73	71	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.10	24	-10	34	14.6	16.3	-1.72	14.7	16.0	-1.30
Joel Anthony	49	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.01	18	-4	22	14.2	15.8	-1.58	15.6	14.3	1.29
LeBron James	81	81	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	2	10	15.1	14.3	0.79	15.0	15.1	-0.16
Mario Chalmers	53	53	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.06	17	-3	20	13.2	17.2	-3.92	14.3	15.8	-1.52
Chris Bosh	66	65	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	5	4	15.1	14.8	0.34	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Shane Battier	46	47	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	9	-4	15.1	14.9	0.13	15.4	14.6	0.79
Udonis Haslem	50	50	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	13	-12	15.4	14.5	0.88	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Norris Cole	43	43	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	17	-20	17.2	13.2	3.92	15.8	14.3	1.52
Mike Miller	19	21	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.18	-13	27	-40	16.4	14.6	1.77	15.8	14.8	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.0%
BKN 91, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIA 86, MEM 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%