NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	78		Excitement	5.6 [556]		MVP	Andrew Goudelock (LAL): +10.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	86		Comeback	2.0 [610]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -21.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.03	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	17	44%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.02	-0.07	0.08	16	50%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.07	0.03	18	37%	-0.14	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Goudelock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	83%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.02	10	71%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	39%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	0.06	22	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	4	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.16,-0.2,-0.19,-0.21,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.21	-0.04	-0.05	18	28%	-0.07	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	25.5	16.4	24.3	1.8	26.4	119.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +52.9%

LAL +2.9%

LAL +12.4%

ATL -18.6%

LAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	LAL	NBA	ATL	LAL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.6	86.7	96.6	102.8
season	15.7	16.2		102.5	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.9		103.5	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.2	13.5	19.2	16.6	16.1
LAL	14.1	20.2	13.5	16.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	63	61	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.21	8	-16	24	15.4	17.7	-2.29	16.1	16.1	0.01
Erick Dampier	30	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-7	6	14.3	17.0	-2.65	17.4	15.4	2.06
Kirk Hinrich	26	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-4	0	17.3	15.6	1.70	14.9	16.6	-1.73
Tracy McGrady	28	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-2	-4	17.2	15.6	1.62	15.0	16.6	-1.63
Willie Green	19	21	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	17.3	15.8	1.54	16.8	15.9	0.96
Marvin Williams	47	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-2	-4	16.1	16.1	-0.08	16.3	15.8	0.47
Joe Johnson	71	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-6	4	15.8	17.3	-1.54	15.9	16.8	-0.96
Jeff Teague	64	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	15.6	17.3	-1.70	16.6	14.9	1.73
Vladimir Radmanovic	50	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	16.1	16.0	0.09	16.3	15.8	0.46
Zaza Pachulia	52	49	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	5	-18	17.3	14.4	2.95	15.5	16.8	-1.36

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	53	53	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-2	12	16.1	16.0	0.09	16.7	15.2	1.55
Troy Murphy	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.25	8	0	8	16.1	16.0	0.13	16.4	15.7	0.72
Matt Barnes	41	39	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	1	6	15.6	16.5	-0.87	16.5	15.8	0.73
Andrew Bynum	58	58	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	2	4	16.3	15.6	0.76	16.6	15.2	1.42
Andrew Goudelock	27	24	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	3	2	15.6	16.3	-0.64	17.5	15.6	1.91
Kobe Bryant	62	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	5	-2	16.3	15.6	0.64	15.6	17.5	-1.91
Pau Gasol	64	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	6	-4	15.8	16.8	-1.00	15.4	18.0	-2.61
Metta World Peace	48	51	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	7	-6	16.5	15.6	0.87	15.8	16.5	-0.73
Derek Fisher	36	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	10	-12	16.0	16.1	-0.09	15.2	16.7	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.92,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%
ORL 88, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.5%
DAL 88, NOH 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%