NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	7.4 [281]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +26.9%
Indiana Pacers	109		Comeback	3.8 [161]		LVP	Al Harrington (DEN): -13.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	11	82%	0.30	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Ty Lawson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.03	0.04	17	66%	0.16	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	4	70%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.02	-0.06	6	37%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Al Harrington	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	18	26%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.01	9	75%	0.17	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.08	0.00	7	47%	0.11	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.02
David West	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.02	0.02	0.12	-0.09	0.01	11	88%	0.24	4	-0.22	3	67%	-0.06
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	8	68%	0.10	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	5	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	18	63%	0.09	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	31.1	17.4	26.0	1.6	37.4	143.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -3.0%

IND -7.5%

DEN +24.2%

DEN +39.8%

IND -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	15.6	116.5	107.9	102.8
season	14.5	15.7		107.5	104.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	11.8	15.3	16.5	14.2
IND	13.9	13.8	14.7	17.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	73	75	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-5	14	13.6	16.1	-2.56	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Arron Afflalo	70	71	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.43	4	0	4	14.6	13.1	1.55	15.5	13.4	2.11
Al Harrington	72	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	0	4	14.3	13.8	0.48	14.5	15.9	-1.38
Ty Lawson	75	75	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	1	2	14.2	14.1	0.14	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Kosta Koufos	49	50	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	5	-6	15.1	13.2	1.87	16.2	13.6	2.57
Rudy Fernandez	38	41	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-3	10	13.6	14.6	-0.93	14.1	15.4	-1.24
Nene	48	49	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	1	2	13.0	15.4	-2.45	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Kenneth Faried	24	26	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	4	-4	14.1	14.2	-0.09	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Andre Miller	36	42	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	13	-22	15.4	13.5	1.85	15.2	14.6	0.61

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Amundson	28	23	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-7	10	13.5	15.4	-1.96	14.6	14.1	0.48
A.J. Price	38	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-8	12	14.1	15.3	-1.24	13.9	14.3	-0.39
Lance Stephenson	32	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-8	12	14.0	15.3	-1.24	15.7	13.6	2.08
Tyler Hansbrough	41	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-4	4	14.4	15.2	-0.83	14.6	14.0	0.56
Dahntay Jones	30	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	1	-6	14.4	15.1	-0.73	13.5	14.5	-0.95
Danny Granger	71	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-5	6	15.1	14.4	0.73	14.5	13.5	0.95
David West	63	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-1	-2	15.2	14.3	0.91	14.1	14.4	-0.31
Paul George	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	4	-12	15.1	14.4	0.67	13.7	15.5	-1.78
Darren Collison	62	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	4	-12	15.6	13.8	1.77	14.2	14.1	0.08
Roy Hibbert	70	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	4	-12	15.4	13.6	1.78	14.0	14.8	-0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 107, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.22,0.18,0	93.3%
UTA 96, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.02,0	92.5%
TOR 102, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.33,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.02,0	92.4%