NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	87		Excitement	3.2 [926]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +10.4%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.3 [804]		LVP	Matt Barnes (LAL): -14.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	0.00	0.08	19	63%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	13	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	4	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Goudelock	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	0.00	0.08	21	51%	-0.02	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Morris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	6	21%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.04	-0.07	27	51%	0.16	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	11	56%	0.09	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	7	29%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	58%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	57%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.8	33.3	19.4	24.0	3.0	29.0	138.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.2%

LAL -0.7%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +0.8%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	17.1	15.6	96.7	111.4	102.8
season	16.2	15.5		103.8	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.1		98.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.8	17.3	13.9	13.4	15.3
MIA	14.5	16.2	18.2	19.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Goudelock	1	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-8	5	11.0	15.4	-4.37	11.0	17.2	-6.20
Troy Murphy	15	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-6	1	14.5	15.5	-1.03	16.7	17.1	-0.38
Metta World Peace	41	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-10	9	15.4	15.2	0.21	17.9	16.4	1.47
Darius Morris	32	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-3	-5	17.5	14.1	3.43	17.5	16.8	0.61
Jason Kapono	17	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.11	-10	-1	-9	18.6	14.6	4.03	18.5	16.7	1.83
Josh McRoberts	23	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	1	-13	19.6	13.9	5.76	16.7	17.2	-0.44
Matt Barnes	45	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-2	-7	14.4	16.2	-1.84	16.3	17.8	-1.43
Derek Fisher	57	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-11	11	14.2	17.3	-3.18	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Andrew Bynum	71	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-7	3	14.5	18.3	-3.79	17.5	15.5	1.95
Pau Gasol	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-10	9	15.1	16.0	-0.94	16.8	17.9	-1.14
Kobe Bryant	78	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.32	-2	-9	7	14.9	18.1	-3.19	16.7	19.4	-2.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	-2	15	16.9	17.5	-0.65	15.6	14.7	0.90
Joel Anthony	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-3	17	17.0	17.1	-0.10	15.2	15.6	-0.41
Mario Chalmers	60	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	2	7	17.3	16.4	0.92	14.2	17.7	-3.54
LeBron James	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	11	-11	16.5	19.2	-2.63	14.6	18.2	-3.56
Shane Battier	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	6	-1	16.5	18.9	-2.41	14.5	17.8	-3.30
Udonis Haslem	43	45	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	10	-9	17.9	16.3	1.57	15.4	15.2	0.20
James Jones	15	16	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	2	7	18.5	16.8	1.70	18.9	14.6	4.32
Mike Miller	24	26	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	3	5	19.3	16.2	3.13	16.7	14.7	1.98
Norris Cole	28	29	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	9	-7	16.4	17.3	-0.92	17.7	14.2	3.54
Eddy Curry	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.15	-6	17	-23	15.2	17.3	-2.09	15.6	15.3	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 77, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
VAN 72, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
WAS 79, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%