NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	8.5 [143]		MVP	Al Harrington (DEN): +15.6%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	4.0 [364]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -39.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	11	56%	0.18	1	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Jon Leuer	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	12	43%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	-0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.23	-0.06	-0.15	0.03	18	45%	-0.09	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.35,-0.39	-0.18	-0.21	-0.00	16	35%	-0.20	6	-0.19	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.00	12	63%	0.22	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.11	0.01	13	57%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	80%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	0.03	12	58%	0.01	4	-0.10	12	83%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	12	25%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	-0.08	-0.17	-0.00	8	25%	-0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	26.7	15.0	25.4	2.3	35.5	131.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -1.2%

DEN +17.2%

DEN +25.3%

DEN +9.1%

MIL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	14.2	15.6	89.6	94.8	102.8
season	14.6	14.5		103.8	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.6		104.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.0	15.3	15.4	15.4	15.8
DEN	11.8	13.5	17.3	14.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	13	13	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-9	13	18.0	15.4	2.55	10.2	14.8	-4.69
Jon Leuer	31	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-1	-3	15.2	16.1	-0.93	12.7	14.9	-2.18
Beno Udrih	28	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.02	-3	-2	-1	16.4	15.5	0.90	11.7	15.2	-3.43
Larry Sanders	7	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-2	-1	12.3	16.1	-3.78	11.0	14.4	-3.42
Ersan Ilyasova	37	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-5	5	15.1	16.2	-1.07	15.6	13.2	2.41
Shaun Livingston	31	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	18.5	14.5	3.98	12.3	15.1	-2.83
Carlos Delfino	85	84	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-6	7	15.3	19.6	-4.34	14.6	11.2	3.38
Luc Mbah a Moute	44	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	0	-5	16.2	15.5	0.72	13.5	14.8	-1.22
Andrew Bogut	60	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-3	1	16.2	15.2	1.00	15.6	11.6	4.06
Brandon Jennings	72	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.36	-6	1	-7	15.7	16.2	-0.50	15.1	11.5	3.53
Stephen Jackson	72	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.43	-4	-1	-3	15.1	17.9	-2.78	14.6	13.0	1.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	68	67	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.47	9	-4	13	14.2	14.2	0.04	15.3	16.9	-1.58
Danilo Gallinari	73	72	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-7	19	14.3	13.9	0.39	15.4	16.8	-1.39
Andre Miller	59	60	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.35	9	-4	13	14.0	14.5	-0.54	16.0	15.5	0.47
Al Harrington	56	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	14.5	13.8	0.61	16.3	15.0	1.29
Rudy Fernandez	43	43	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.20	1	4	-3	14.3	14.1	0.17	17.1	14.7	2.44
Arron Afflalo	52	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	5	-5	14.8	13.5	1.27	15.1	16.5	-1.36
Kosta Koufos	41	40	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	1	3	13.8	14.5	-0.79	14.8	16.5	-1.70
Timofey Mozgov	29	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	4	-3	14.7	14.0	0.64	16.4	15.5	0.90
Corey Brewer	31	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.12	2	3	-1	12.3	15.1	-2.79	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Chris Andersen	28	30	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.01	-14	19	-33	14.9	13.9	1.02	16.9	15.3	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.36,0.47,0.53,0.81,0.89,0.77,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.96,1,1	91.9%
ATL 96, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.72,1	91.2%
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	91.2%