NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	5.8 [515]		MVP	Ben Gordon (DET): +16.0%
Detroit Pistons	89		Comeback	2.4 [227]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -12.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	133%	0.16	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	7	81%	0.09	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	10	36%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	14	53%	0.02	3	-0.09	8	37%	-0.06
Glen Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	31%	-0.03	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	15	67%	0.29	5	-0.13	9	89%	0.03
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	8	48%	0.08	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	10	48%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.0	31.2	16.7	25.2	2.5	32.6	139.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +24.2%

DET +11.4%

DET +12.2%

ORL -0.2%

DET +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	18.6	15.6	95.1	108.5	102.8
season	16.2	16.3		102.8	99.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	16.5	17.6	16.1	16.5
DET	18.5	17.8	16.7	21.8	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	38	38	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.15	7	-18	25	15.8	17.1	-1.37	17.8	19.3	-1.50
Chris Duhon	30	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-14	17	16.4	16.6	-0.16	18.3	18.8	-0.53
JJ Redick	39	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-11	11	16.8	16.2	0.61	19.5	17.7	1.83
Glen Davis	44	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	16.6	16.4	0.15	17.3	20.1	-2.87
Ryan Anderson	50	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-2	-7	16.6	16.4	0.21	19.3	17.3	1.98
Jason Richardson	43	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	0	-11	16.2	16.8	-0.61	17.7	19.5	-1.83
Jameer Nelson	52	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.01	-14	3	-17	16.6	16.4	0.16	18.8	18.3	0.53
Dwight Howard	70	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	-2	-7	16.4	17.1	-0.68	18.9	17.1	1.87
Hedo Turkoglu	44	44	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.03	-18	7	-25	17.1	15.8	1.37	19.3	17.8	1.50

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.02	14	-3	17	18.4	19.6	-1.25	16.1	18.3	-2.24
Tayshaun Prince	61	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	-1	13	18.7	18.3	0.39	16.5	16.5	0.03
Rodney Stuckey	63	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	5	1	19.0	17.4	1.63	16.5	16.4	0.10
Jonas Jerebko	62	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	4	3	18.8	18.1	0.62	17.0	15.0	1.99
Brandon Knight	36	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	9	-7	18.0	19.1	-1.06	17.3	16.0	1.31
Ben Wallace	37	35	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.03	6	5	1	16.2	20.6	-4.33	17.0	16.1	0.87
Jason Maxiell	28	29	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	6	-1	18.3	18.8	-0.46	16.6	16.5	0.08
Damien Wilkins	20	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	12	-13	19.0	18.5	0.50	16.5	16.5	-0.03
Greg Monroe	36	38	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	11	-11	21.1	16.7	4.44	16.0	17.0	-0.98
Charlie Villanueva	1	1	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	9	-7	16.0	18.7	-2.65	1.0	16.7	-15.69
Austin Daye	0	1	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	9	-7	0.0	18.6	-18.62	1.0	16.7	-15.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%
MIL 92, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,1,1	94.2%
CLE 82, NJN 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.57,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%