NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	96		Excitement	8.5 [179]		MVP	Leon Powe (MEM): +20.8%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	2.9 [649]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -24.2%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leon Powe	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.12	-0.01	2	79%	0.21	0	0.00	10	90%	0.06
Marc Gasol	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.00	8	78%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Darrell Arthur	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	8	56%	0.16	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Sam Young	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	76%	0.08	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.15	-0.03	-0.11	0.01	10	41%	-0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	-0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.21	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	16	33%	-0.21	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Zach Randolph	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.06,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.20	-0.01	11	55%	-0.09	4	-0.15	7	57%	-0.11

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.03	-0.05	5	45%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	-0.00	14	70%	0.16	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.02
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	54%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	36%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	13	43%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	22	42%	0.13	4	-0.21	13	92%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.7	31.0	16.4	27.5	2.5	39.9	145.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +18.4%

CHI +13.9%

CHI +30.7%

MEM -17.2%

CHI +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	CHI	NBA	MEM	CHI	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.5	110.3	115.1	105.7
season	15.5	15.7		106.1	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		99.2	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.5	17.9	14.0	18.6	16.7
CHI	17.8	16.4	16.0	16.4	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	28	28	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.16	-1	-2	1	16.0	17.0	-0.93	15.6	17.1	-1.46
Leon Powe	18	18	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-4	5	14.9	17.1	-2.17	17.8	16.3	1.45
Greivis Vasquez	15	16	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	0	-3	17.2	16.6	0.64	15.6	16.9	-1.23
Sam Young	36	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	15.5	17.5	-1.94	16.9	16.4	0.54
Darrell Arthur	34	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	1	-5	16.9	16.5	0.45	16.6	16.7	-0.12
O.J. Mayo	51	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-2	1	17.5	15.5	1.94	16.4	16.9	-0.51
Marc Gasol	60	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	1	-5	16.5	17.1	-0.59	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Zach Randolph	62	60	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.61	2	-5	7	17.2	15.4	1.83	16.5	16.8	-0.26
Mike Conley	72	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.56	0	-3	3	16.6	17.2	-0.64	16.9	15.6	1.23
Tony Allen	59	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.55	-3	0	-3	17.0	16.0	0.93	17.1	15.6	1.46

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	68	68	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.51	7	-4	11	17.0	15.4	1.57	16.3	18.1	-1.77
Joakim Noah	57	59	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.62	3	0	3	16.4	17.1	-0.67	17.6	14.7	2.83
Luol Deng	75	74	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.54	3	0	3	17.2	12.5	4.79	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Kyle Korver	31	33	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-11	25	15.8	17.1	-1.28	18.5	15.5	2.98
Kurt Thomas	21	20	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	2	-1	17.2	16.4	0.74	15.7	17.0	-1.26
Carlos Boozer	48	49	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	3	-3	16.6	16.6	0.04	17.0	16.2	0.76
Ronnie Brewer	31	33	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	15.6	17.2	-1.59	16.8	16.6	0.24
Keith Bogans	36	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.20	-9	12	-21	16.8	16.5	0.26	14.5	18.2	-3.70
Omer Asik	17	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.10	1	2	-1	15.4	16.9	-1.52	17.0	16.6	0.41
Taj Gibson	28	29	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.16	-2	5	-7	17.6	16.2	1.40	15.3	17.4	-2.09
CJ Watson	18	19	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.14	-3	6	-9	15.4	17.0	-1.57	18.1	16.3	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.38,0.63,0.66,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	91.9%
DAL 107, ATL 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.72,0.67,0.92,1	91.3%
MIN 89, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.13,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.54,0.67,0.98,1	91.3%