NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	93		Excitement	4.4 [964]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +17.8%
Detroit Pistons	107		Comeback	1.1 [1028]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -6.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	16	51%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	73%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	11	73%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	20	44%	0.04	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	6	69%	0.07	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Alexis Ajinca	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	16	71%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.03	-0.02	14	64%	0.17	0	0.00	5	60%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.01	17	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	1	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.6	17.7	22.2	2.4	28.6	127.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +29.8%

DET +6.6%

DET +4.3%

DET +10.5%

TOR -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	17.0	15.5	102.2	116.3	105.7
season	15.1	16.7		104.7	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		110.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	14.7	14.2	14.1	14.5
DET	15.2	15.9	17.9	19.2	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	9	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-10	6	16.0	14.3	1.68	15.7	17.1	-1.43
Leandro Barbosa	50	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-13	12	14.0	15.0	-0.98	17.2	16.7	0.49
Ed Davis	39	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-5	-4	15.8	13.5	2.34	16.7	17.2	-0.45
Jose Calderon	56	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-6	-2	14.1	15.2	-1.12	16.9	17.1	-0.13
Sonny Weems	33	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-8	2	15.8	13.7	2.14	15.4	17.8	-2.42
James Johnson	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	-3	-8	13.6	15.1	-1.46	18.4	16.0	2.46
Jerryd Bayless	35	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-8	2	15.2	14.1	1.12	17.1	16.9	0.13
Reggie Evans	54	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-10	6	14.7	14.2	0.54	16.5	17.7	-1.21
DeMar DeRozan	66	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-4	-6	14.1	15.4	-1.32	17.1	16.7	0.35
Andrea Bargnani	75	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	-3	-8	13.9	17.2	-3.36	17.4	15.4	1.98

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	68	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	-1	16	16.9	17.2	-0.37	14.1	15.5	-1.38
Tayshaun Prince	64	63	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.07	14	0	14	17.2	16.5	0.64	14.5	14.4	0.08
Greg Monroe	67	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	1	12	16.9	17.3	-0.47	14.0	15.8	-1.83
Ben Wallace	47	46	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.00	11	3	8	16.8	17.2	-0.43	14.8	14.1	0.74
Rodney Stuckey	50	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	9	-4	17.5	16.4	1.06	14.3	14.7	-0.34
Tracy McGrady	59	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	6	2	16.8	17.3	-0.46	14.0	15.3	-1.25
Austin Daye	27	26	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	10	-6	16.6	17.2	-0.60	15.0	14.3	0.67
Chris Wilcox	30	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	12	-10	16.9	17.0	-0.17	14.9	14.3	0.57
Ben Gordon	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	15	-16	17.2	16.9	0.37	15.5	14.1	1.38
Charlie Villanueva	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	15	-16	17.2	16.9	0.37	15.5	14.1	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 72, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.89,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CHI 92, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.84,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
DAL 105, HOU 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.84,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%