NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	115		Excitement	8.7 [147]		MVP	George Hill (SAS): +24.0%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	1.6 [605]		LVP	Kevin Martin (HOU): -13.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.16	-0.01	9	67%	0.27	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.17	0.00	0.17	0.00	9	46%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	5	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.12	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	20	48%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	15	51%	0.11	1	-0.03	7	86%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	5	71%	0.14	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Gary Neal	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.15	-0.01	6	57%	0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.06
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	-0.06	0.15	-0.03	10	57%	0.30	6	-0.18	3	100%	0.03
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	57%	0.13	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	6	77%	0.10	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.13	0.01	12	53%	-0.07	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.07,-0.03,-0.13	-0.13	0.06	-0.19	0.00	23	52%	-0.05	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	26.2	14.8	26.6	0.7	39.3	134.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.1%

HOU -5.4%

HOU -2.0%

SAS +27.8%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	13.2	15.5	112.7	103.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.2		109.3	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.2		107.5	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.6	15.3	17.2	14.0	15.0
HOU	12.2	13.0	13.4	14.2	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	73	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-1	10	14.4	16.3	-1.95	13.7	11.8	1.94
Tony Parker	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-2	12	15.0	14.8	0.19	12.7	14.3	-1.56
Richard Jefferson	71	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	1	6	15.6	13.4	2.20	12.8	13.9	-1.13
George Hill	58	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	1	6	14.6	15.4	-0.85	13.5	12.7	0.75
Tim Duncan	59	60	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	1	6	16.0	13.6	2.41	12.8	13.7	-0.93
Steve Novak	7	7	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	5	-2	12.1	15.2	-3.02	16.4	12.9	3.51
Gary Neal	45	47	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	11	-14	14.9	15.0	-0.15	13.2	13.1	0.07
DeJuan Blair	40	41	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	9	-10	14.3	15.4	-1.07	14.0	12.6	1.44
Matt Bonner	34	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.18	9	-1	10	13.9	15.5	-1.56	13.4	13.0	0.41
Antonio McDyess	47	47	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	16	-24	15.7	14.3	1.39	12.1	14.0	-1.89

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	36	36	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.09	0	-8	8	13.0	13.2	-0.20	16.5	14.1	2.39
Patrick Patterson	54	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-7	6	12.9	13.4	-0.44	13.8	16.3	-2.53
Brad Miller	31	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	12.8	13.3	-0.45	13.5	15.6	-2.06
Kyle Lowry	75	74	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-4	0	13.5	12.4	1.10	14.8	15.2	-0.41
Goran Dragic	37	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-3	-2	13.3	13.1	0.26	15.0	14.9	0.08
Chase Budinger	77	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-6	4	13.0	13.5	-0.51	15.4	13.5	1.95
Charles Hayes	60	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	13.2	13.0	0.19	16.2	13.4	2.79
Kevin Martin	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	2	-12	13.0	13.5	-0.47	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Courtney Lee	70	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	-1	-6	13.3	12.8	0.54	14.3	16.4	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.25,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.28,0.31,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 93, NOP 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.58,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.01,0	92.7%
MIA 107, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.47,0.33,0.27,0.4,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.45,0.14,0.28,0	92.2%
NYK 82, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.25,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	91.9%