NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	6.6 [504]		MVP	Reggie Williams (GSW): +25.2%
Indiana Pacers	109		Comeback	2.6 [672]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -18.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Williams	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.04	0.02	14	89%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	14	54%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Lou Amundson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ekpe Udoh	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	17	56%	0.16	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.05	9	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	16	35%	-0.16	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.07	-0.03	10	56%	0.18	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.05	0.05	11	71%	0.19	3	-0.06	16	100%	0.10
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.02	7	53%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	7	65%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	29.1	15.7	30.0	2.5	37.4	143.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -6.6%

IND +32.2%

IND +3.0%

IND +17.1%

IND +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	IND	NBA	GSW	IND	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.5	102.0	110.1	105.7
season	14.8	14.7		106.6	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		104.5	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.5	15.0	12.6	14.7	14.2
IND	15.5	16.9	14.0	14.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lin	11	11	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.02	10	-19	29	17.9	13.7	4.22	15.5	15.0	0.53
Reggie Williams	51	52	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.27	14	-23	37	14.5	13.7	0.80	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Ekpe Udoh	35	39	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.23	10	-19	29	15.6	13.4	2.19	15.0	15.1	-0.07
Lou Amundson	18	17	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.20	9	-18	27	14.3	14.1	0.14	15.6	15.0	0.62
Vladimir Radmanovic	37	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-11	13	13.4	14.6	-1.22	15.8	14.7	1.11
Acie Law	35	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.25	5	-14	19	14.9	13.7	1.17	15.9	14.6	1.33
Andris Biedrins	29	29	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.20	-22	13	-35	14.4	14.1	0.36	14.2	15.4	-1.22
Monta Ellis	77	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	5	-19	14.3	13.5	0.81	14.7	16.4	-1.67
David Lee	72	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.15	-14	5	-19	14.3	13.9	0.38	15.2	14.6	0.61
Stephen Curry	73	74	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.09	-19	10	-29	13.1	17.4	-4.35	15.0	15.4	-0.44
Dorell Wright	52	52	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	0.08	-26	17	-43	13.1	15.4	-2.36	14.7	15.5	-0.76

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darren Collison	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-3	15	14.7	15.6	-0.89	12.7	16.3	-3.65
Paul George	36	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	-2	13	13.9	15.7	-1.81	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Tyler Hansbrough	45	44	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	1	7	15.3	14.9	0.36	14.3	14.0	0.32
Roy Hibbert	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	4	1	15.0	15.2	-0.18	14.2	14.0	0.19
Danny Granger	69	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-1	11	14.9	15.4	-0.42	13.3	16.0	-2.69
Brandon Rush	52	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	1	7	14.4	15.8	-1.45	13.6	14.8	-1.13
Dahntay Jones	30	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	10	-11	15.4	14.9	0.42	16.0	13.3	2.69
Jeff Foster	30	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	15.5	14.9	0.66	14.4	14.0	0.39
Josh McRoberts	51	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	9	-9	15.1	15.1	0.02	14.5	13.9	0.60
Lance Stephenson	27	26	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	11	-13	16.9	14.4	2.55	14.8	13.9	0.88
A.J. Price	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.22	-8	17	-25	16.1	14.7	1.45	16.5	13.2	3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 106, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%
NYK 105, MIA 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
BOS 106, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.93,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.97,1,0.98,1	93.2%