NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	8.2 [212]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +45.5%
Utah Jazz	102		Comeback	1.6 [874]		LVP	Earl Watson (UTA): -20.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.45	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.45	0.16	0.30	0.01	15	78%	0.49	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.13	-0.02	13	57%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Paul Pierce	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.13	0.15	-0.01	0.00	10	68%	0.13	0	0.00	11	100%	0.06
Avery Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	31%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	16	56%	0.12	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	8	35%	0.00	4	-0.19	4	75%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.00	5	75%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.10	-0.01	13	52%	0.18	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.07
Devin Harris	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	66%	0.13	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.05
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.00	21	57%	0.18	2	-0.14	7	86%	-0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	2	37%	-0.06	3	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.6	33.1	15.7	22.2	2.3	38.7	138.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +80.3%

UTA -29.0%

BOS +0.8%

UTA -0.8%

UTA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	UTA	NBA	BOS	UTA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.5	15.5	109.2	105.2	105.7
season	15.7	15.9		104.8	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.8		108.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	16.8	15.2	13.9	15.1
UTA	15.2	15.2	16.1	11.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	73	73	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-9	23	14.7	16.1	-1.34	14.5	14.3	0.22
Ray Allen	77	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-6	17	14.4	17.5	-3.05	14.5	14.4	0.03
Rajon Rondo	88	86	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	-1	7	14.9	17.1	-2.25	14.3	16.0	-1.74
Glen Davis	57	58	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	6	-7	14.9	15.4	-0.49	13.8	15.5	-1.73
Paul Pierce	81	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	3	-1	15.0	15.6	-0.61	13.7	17.8	-4.08
Avery Bradley	10	11	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.04	-1	6	-7	17.1	14.9	2.25	16.0	14.3	1.74
Nenad Krstic	58	57	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	15.7	14.2	1.53	14.9	13.7	1.20
Chris Johnson	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	7	-9	15.2	15.1	0.09	15.8	14.4	1.47
Jeff Green	36	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	4	-3	16.0	14.6	1.41	16.1	13.5	2.64
Von Wafer	4	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	9	-13	21.7	14.8	6.95	14.3	14.5	-0.12

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	42	43	0.39	-0.89	1.29	-0.05	15	-20	35	13.7	15.1	-1.39	16.1	14.3	1.84
Derrick Favors	32	32	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.10	6	-11	17	13.4	15.0	-1.56	16.3	14.5	1.83
CJ Miles	32	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-3	1	14.7	14.3	0.35	14.7	15.2	-0.49
Earl Watson	30	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-7	9	13.7	14.8	-1.14	15.0	15.1	-0.07
Devin Harris	67	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	2	-9	14.8	13.7	1.14	15.1	15.0	0.07
Andrei Kirilenko	65	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	14.3	14.7	-0.35	15.1	15.1	0.03
Paul Millsap	77	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	1	-7	14.8	13.3	1.45	15.3	14.4	0.89
Al Jefferson	85	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	5	-15	14.6	13.6	0.99	14.6	18.7	-4.18
Raja Bell	55	55	-0.89	0.39	-1.29	-0.31	-20	15	-35	15.1	13.7	1.39	14.3	16.1	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.39,0.15,0.22,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 98, SEA 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.04,0	92.0%
BOS 85, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.51,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.16,0.31,0	91.8%
NYK 98, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	91.7%