NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	95		Excitement	3.5 [1143]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): +7.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	81		Comeback	1.4 [982]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIN): -21.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	13	60%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	13	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	45%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Willie Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Smith	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
David Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	5	33%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	19	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.06	11	71%	0.07	3	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	47%	0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.01	16	25%	-0.10	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.5	27.2	15.8	26.2	2.5	29.3	124.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +43.9%

MIN -0.4%

MIN -16.0%

NOH +24.0%

MIN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIN	NBA	NOH	MIN	NBA
this game	17.7	14.9	15.5	108.0	91.0	105.7
season	16.2	14.3		104.6	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.9		109.5	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.3	16.9	16.6	21.4	17.7
MIN	14.3	19.1	12.2	14.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	71	70	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-1	16	17.5	18.5	-0.99	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Carl Landry	50	51	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	5	4	18.0	17.3	0.72	14.0	16.1	-2.03
Aaron Gray	37	39	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	2	10	18.5	17.1	1.45	15.5	14.4	1.02
Trevor Ariza	57	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	8	-2	18.3	16.5	1.83	14.1	16.3	-2.20
Jarrett Jack	37	40	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	10	-6	18.1	17.4	0.71	16.1	13.9	2.16
Willie Green	48	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	6	2	17.6	17.7	-0.15	13.9	15.9	-1.98
Quincy Pondexter	32	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	9	-4	17.0	18.0	-1.00	16.4	13.9	2.47
Emeka Okafor	49	49	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	12	-10	17.1	18.4	-1.28	14.3	15.6	-1.25
Jason Smith	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	8	-2	16.6	18.4	-1.82	16.2	14.0	2.19
Marco Belinelli	21	23	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	10	-6	16.8	17.9	-1.13	15.2	14.8	0.44
David Andersen	3	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	15	-16	25.3	17.4	7.93	13.5	14.9	-1.42

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-12	10	14.2	15.0	-0.70	16.4	17.8	-1.43
Nikola Pekovic	27	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-7	0	14.6	15.0	-0.42	15.8	18.4	-2.59
Anthony Tolliver	45	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.11	-2	-12	10	15.8	14.0	1.80	18.5	16.8	1.70
Jonny Flynn	28	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-9	4	16.1	14.3	1.73	17.5	17.7	-0.25
Lazar Hayward	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-6	-2	14.8	14.9	-0.11	17.1	18.0	-0.90
Luke Ridnour	61	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-5	-4	14.3	16.1	-1.73	17.7	17.5	0.25
Wesley Johnson	79	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-8	2	14.9	14.6	0.32	17.9	15.9	2.00
Michael Beasley	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	-5	-4	15.0	14.7	0.32	18.0	17.1	0.94
Darko Milicic	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-1	-12	15.3	14.5	0.80	17.0	18.3	-1.25
Kevin Love	63	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-5	-4	14.1	16.9	-2.82	18.2	16.6	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 122, NYK 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
SAS 83, MEM 73	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
TOR 108, GSW 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%