NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	3.7 [1115]		MVP	Shane Battier (HOU): +12.1%
Houston Rockets	121		Comeback	4.3 [397]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -7.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	48%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.00	0.07	5	65%	0.00	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	70%	-0.00	2	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Ty Lawson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	4	33%	0.00	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.10	10	68%	0.03	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	14	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.18	0.02	0.07	7	121%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.19	0.01	0.09	14	76%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	13	58%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.03	7	73%	0.04	1	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	11	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	11	46%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Brad Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	10	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	9	39%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	32.4	15.7	27.0	1.6	29.2	134.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +27.4%

HOU +10.8%

HOU +7.3%

HOU +5.7%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.5	110.9	127.4	105.7
season	14.3	15.2		110.7	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.5		107.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.0	14.9	15.5	12.0	15.0
HOU	14.9	16.4	13.9	18.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Forbes	38	40	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-19	19	12.3	16.9	-4.55	16.9	14.9	2.02
Chris Andersen	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-21	23	12.1	15.8	-3.66	18.8	15.0	3.76
J.R. Smith	45	47	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.07	-3	-16	13	12.7	17.3	-4.59	16.6	15.0	1.57
Kenyon Martin	35	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-16	13	17.3	13.6	3.63	15.7	15.8	-0.18
Al Harrington	42	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.16	-14	-5	-9	14.5	15.4	-0.90	14.4	16.9	-2.51
Ty Lawson	52	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	-4	-11	13.0	17.6	-4.54	16.4	15.0	1.41
Arron Afflalo	70	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-10	1	15.0	15.0	0.01	16.2	14.6	1.54
Carmelo Anthony	54	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	-6	-7	17.1	12.1	4.95	15.3	16.5	-1.16
Chauncey Billups	52	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	-6	-7	17.2	12.2	4.93	14.5	17.4	-2.92
Nene	53	54	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	0.18	-27	8	-35	16.6	12.8	3.76	15.0	16.9	-1.89

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luis Scola	57	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.10	22	-3	25	15.1	16.8	-1.73	16.5	12.5	4.03
Jordan Hill	49	49	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.24	22	-3	25	16.2	15.3	0.96	13.2	17.1	-3.91
Chase Budinger	52	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.18	19	0	19	16.7	14.7	2.02	13.3	17.2	-3.94
Courtney Lee	51	49	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.40	25	-6	31	16.3	15.1	1.20	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Kyle Lowry	56	53	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	11	-3	14.9	17.0	-2.07	16.3	13.3	2.96
Charles Hayes	37	36	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	17	-15	15.3	16.1	-0.74	17.3	13.5	3.82
Kevin Martin	37	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	16	-13	15.3	16.1	-0.74	17.3	13.5	3.82
Aaron Brooks	43	42	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	14	-9	15.7	15.8	-0.11	13.5	16.2	-2.69
Shane Battier	61	59	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.20	12	7	5	15.6	16.1	-0.48	15.8	13.6	2.24
Ish Smith	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	27	-35	17.4	15.6	1.79	10.5	15.6	-5.06
Patrick Patterson	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	29	-39	17.7	15.5	2.26	10.6	15.6	-4.97
Brad Miller	9	7	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	24	-29	15.1	15.8	-0.74	15.9	14.9	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 88, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
POR 106, PHX 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
SAS 90, NOP 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%