NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	71		Excitement	7.5 [341]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (PHI): +24.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	77		Comeback	2.7 [321]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -36.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	18	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	7	69%	0.07	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Neal	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	10	55%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	8	19%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	6	14%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	11	33%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	10	37%	-0.09	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	0.00	10	31%	-0.29	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.09	0.03	14	79%	0.29	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.08	-0.01	11	36%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.04
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	9	22%	-0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.10	0.02	13	23%	-0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.18	-0.12	-0.02	15	21%	-0.20	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	31.8	15.0	23.3	2.5	33.4	130.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +34.1%

PHI +1.4%

SAS -16.6%

PHI +31.8%

SAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHI	NBA	SAS	PHI	NBA
this game	16.1	14.7	15.5	76.3	81.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.5		109.3	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.4	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	14.8	18.3	18.0	16.1
PHI	12.7	17.2	12.5	17.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	36	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	17.6	15.1	2.44	16.5	13.6	2.91
DeJuan Blair	53	51	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-5	4	15.4	17.0	-1.69	14.9	14.6	0.30
Gary Neal	49	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-8	10	15.4	16.9	-1.52	15.2	14.2	0.95
George Hill	53	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-6	6	15.4	17.0	-1.65	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Manu Ginobili	67	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.26	2	-8	10	15.9	16.5	-0.52	14.9	14.3	0.62
Matt Bonner	36	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-7	8	14.7	17.0	-2.27	13.3	15.7	-2.40
Richard Jefferson	51	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	6	-18	16.5	15.6	0.89	13.8	15.9	-2.09
Tony Parker	62	64	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.35	-12	6	-18	16.9	14.5	2.35	14.5	15.1	-0.55
Tim Duncan	58	61	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.50	-10	4	-14	16.9	14.7	2.20	14.9	14.4	0.51

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	71	68	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-7	20	14.4	15.7	-1.23	16.9	13.8	3.07
Jrue Holiday	73	73	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.39	12	-6	18	14.0	17.1	-3.05	16.6	14.3	2.21
Andre Iguodala	79	78	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.39	10	-4	14	15.4	11.2	4.19	16.3	14.8	1.53
Spencer Hawes	59	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	2	2	15.9	12.7	3.16	16.9	14.7	2.22
Lou Williams	50	51	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	5	-4	14.7	14.7	0.04	16.7	15.4	1.33
Jodie Meeks	48	46	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	5	-4	14.5	15.0	-0.54	14.6	17.5	-2.88
Thaddeus Young	41	40	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	10	-14	13.8	15.5	-1.67	15.1	16.8	-1.77
Marreese Speights	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	5	-4	16.9	14.5	2.35	15.7	16.1	-0.37
Jason Kapono	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	6	-6	0.0	14.9	-14.88	6.0	16.2	-10.20
Andres Nocioni	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	6	-6	0.0	14.9	-14.88	6.0	16.2	-10.20
Darius Songaila	7	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	10	-14	15.1	14.7	0.45	12.0	16.5	-4.47
Evan Turner	32	32	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	10	-14	15.0	14.6	0.42	15.3	16.5	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 98, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.91,1	93.6%
WAS 88, UTA 95	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.9,0.84,1	92.5%
DEN 72, MEM 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.46,0.78,0.97,1,1	92.1%