NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	80		Excitement	4.6 [936]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +9.5%
Boston Celtics	91		Comeback	2.3 [693]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (ORL): -13.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	20	56%	0.09	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.05	11	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	10	18%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	42%	-0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.02	7	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.04	-0.02	9	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	15	67%	0.17	6	-0.13	9	78%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	73%	0.09	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	0.03	11	53%	0.09	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.02
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Semih Erden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.3	40.7	19.5	29.5	3.4	32.5	158.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +64.6%

BOS +7.7%

ORL -15.9%

ORL -10.6%

BOS +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	15.5	87.9	98.9	105.7
season	15.2	15.7		106.3	104.8
opponent	15.8	16.2		99.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	15.3	17.6	16.9	16.4
BOS	14.5	12.5	16.7	17.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	7	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-10	9	18.9	16.2	2.63	12.3	15.2	-2.91
Chris Duhon	8	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-7	3	15.4	16.5	-1.16	13.1	15.3	-2.19
Gilbert Arenas	27	26	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-9	7	18.6	15.5	3.02	14.7	15.2	-0.45
JJ Redick	50	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-9	7	16.0	17.0	-0.95	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Quentin Richardson	23	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-6	1	18.4	15.7	2.68	16.4	14.6	1.72
Hedo Turkoglu	46	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-6	1	16.2	16.7	-0.56	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Ryan Anderson	61	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.18	-2	-9	7	15.5	18.3	-2.74	16.0	13.0	2.95
Earl Clark	29	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-2	-7	18.6	15.4	3.17	13.5	15.7	-2.29
Jameer Nelson	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-6	1	15.6	17.8	-2.27	15.6	14.3	1.28
Jason Richardson	64	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	-1	-9	16.1	17.1	-1.02	14.6	16.2	-1.65
Dwight Howard	84	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.20	-10	-1	-9	16.2	18.9	-2.63	15.2	12.3	2.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	79	79	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.05	20	-9	29	14.8	16.6	-1.82	16.8	14.2	2.51
Kevin Garnett	64	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-6	23	14.7	15.8	-1.05	16.2	17.0	-0.79
Ray Allen	77	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	2	7	15.6	12.5	3.09	15.9	18.9	-2.97
Kendrick Perkins	60	61	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	8	-5	15.6	14.0	1.66	16.8	15.6	1.19
Rajon Rondo	70	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	7	-3	15.9	12.3	3.66	16.2	17.2	-1.06
Nate Robinson	23	23	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.11	10	1	9	12.5	15.9	-3.38	17.2	16.2	1.06
Glen Davis	47	45	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	16	-21	15.5	14.6	0.89	16.0	16.9	-0.89
Von Wafer	26	27	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	16	-21	14.0	15.5	-1.52	16.4	16.4	0.02
Marquis Daniels	7	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	11	-11	14.6	15.1	-0.52	18.7	16.2	2.48
Semih Erden	7	8	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	9	-7	11.6	15.3	-3.77	17.5	16.3	1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, CHA 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
NYK 96, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.37,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MEM 102, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%