NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	8.8 [136]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +59.5%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	2.9 [449]		LVP	George Hill (SAS): -19.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.60	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.6	0.00	0.54	-0.06	15	47%	0.62	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
Richard Jefferson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.13	0.00	6	81%	0.26	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.07	0.06	18	67%	0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	19	52%	0.10	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.1	0.02	-0.12	0.00	3	100%	0.12	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.3	0.30	0.09	0.21	-0.00	20	57%	0.59	2	-0.29	14	71%	-0.05
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.08
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	68%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.06	0.01	12	77%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	14	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	63%	0.10	3	-0.08	7	86%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.6	33.4	19.8	28.2	2.8	44.1	159.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +55.5%

DEN -12.5%

SAS +6.4%

SAS +1.0%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	14.8	15.5	115.3	116.7	105.7
season	15.5	14.3		109.3	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	13.2	15.4	16.4	14.9
DEN	16.4	14.0	18.2	11.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	32	29	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-15	31	16.4	14.2	2.23	17.7	13.5	4.26
George Hill	69	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-6	13	15.1	14.5	0.60	14.1	16.3	-2.24
Manu Ginobili	65	64	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	-2	5	15.4	14.1	1.28	13.9	16.5	-2.62
Tim Duncan	67	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	4	-7	15.7	13.3	2.46	14.7	14.9	-0.25
Gary Neal	39	39	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-9	19	13.9	15.6	-1.64	15.7	14.1	1.67
Tony Parker	78	77	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.50	-9	10	-19	14.7	15.9	-1.21	14.1	17.6	-3.53
Antonio McDyess	30	27	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	-7	15	14.2	15.3	-1.11	16.9	13.9	2.98
Chris Quinn	4	4	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	-3	7	19.7	14.7	5.02	19.5	14.5	4.96
Ime Udoka	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	4	-7	0.0	15.1	-15.09	6.0	14.8	-8.84
DeJuan Blair	28	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	8	-15	14.8	15.0	-0.16	14.8	14.7	0.10
Richard Jefferson	77	76	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.37	-21	22	-43	14.2	17.8	-3.65	14.3	16.5	-2.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelden Williams	29	29	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-7	13	16.5	14.0	2.53	16.3	14.4	1.90
Al Harrington	39	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	2	-5	15.0	14.6	0.42	14.0	15.6	-1.70
Arron Afflalo	77	79	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.43	12	-13	25	14.2	16.8	-2.61	15.3	13.5	1.82
Nene	67	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-5	9	15.2	13.7	1.52	15.9	12.7	3.19
Ty Lawson	76	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-9	17	14.6	15.4	-0.82	15.3	13.6	1.74
Anthony Carter	20	22	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	8	-17	15.4	14.6	0.82	13.6	15.3	-1.74
Carmelo Anthony	86	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	0	-1	15.0	12.8	2.18	14.7	16.4	-1.68
J.R. Smith	53	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.48	-7	6	-13	13.3	16.5	-3.23	14.3	15.7	-1.39
Gary Forbes	33	33	-0.90	0.40	-1.29	-0.46	-15	14	-29	14.9	14.7	0.24	13.7	15.6	-1.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.16,0	93.8%
BOS 93, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.15,0	92.8%
CHI 88, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.04,0	92.4%