NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	98		Excitement	4.8 [888]		MVP	DeShawn Stevenson (DAL): +13.3%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.3 [533]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): -17.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	4	130%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.03	10	68%	0.17	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.05
Brendan Haywood	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	52%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	31%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	22	41%	-0.05	2	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.01	0.06	12	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	10	80%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.00	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	19	52%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	14	37%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.02	0.01	10	35%	-0.00	5	-0.17	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.6	26.2	16.4	25.5	2.5	31.3	129.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +16.8%

DAL +9.9%

DAL +9.7%

DAL +11.4%

DAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ATL	NBA	DAL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.5	106.5	101.1	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		108.5	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.1	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.5	18.8	16.0	15.9	15.8
ATL	12.7	20.2	16.0	14.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	33	33	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-10	25	17.9	14.6	3.31	17.8	14.2	3.68
Dirk Nowitzki	75	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	-1	7	16.0	15.0	1.00	15.5	15.4	0.06
Shawn Marion	58	57	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	16.5	14.6	1.95	15.6	15.4	0.19
Brendan Haywood	37	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	-2	9	17.1	14.9	2.16	16.3	14.9	1.39
Jason Kidd	65	64	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	8	-11	15.0	17.7	-2.67	14.8	17.1	-2.33
Jason Terry	54	54	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.38	-5	10	-15	16.1	15.4	0.76	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Caron Butler	45	46	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	-4	13	14.2	17.4	-3.21	15.6	15.3	0.28
Tyson Chandler	55	56	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.24	-4	9	-13	14.9	17.1	-2.16	14.9	16.3	-1.39
DeShawn Stevenson	38	38	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	8	-11	15.3	16.1	-0.81	14.5	16.2	-1.69

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Crawford	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.22	7	-12	19	15.7	15.4	0.25	17.0	15.4	1.56
Jeff Teague	6	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	0	-5	18.8	15.3	3.58	18.1	15.6	2.52
Maurice Evans	30	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-2	-1	17.4	14.6	2.84	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Al Horford	74	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.37	7	-12	19	14.9	17.8	-2.91	15.3	18.1	-2.85
Mike Bibby	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-9	13	14.6	16.5	-1.92	15.4	16.3	-0.83
Joe Johnson	76	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-5	5	14.9	18.1	-3.12	15.5	17.3	-1.81
Zaza Pachulia	18	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	7	-19	17.8	14.9	2.91	18.1	15.3	2.85
Jamal Crawford	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-4	3	15.1	16.4	-1.35	16.3	14.6	1.68
Josh Smith	68	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-3	1	15.2	16.3	-1.09	16.0	15.2	0.79
Marvin Williams	52	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.11	-20	15	-35	16.4	14.3	2.15	15.3	16.5	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.13,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.3,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 100, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.07,0.05,0,0,0	94.4%
DAL 112, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.16,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.3%
CHI 94, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	94.3%