NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	108		Excitement	10.4 [44]		MVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): +32.4%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	2.7 [462]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -30.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.14,0.26,0.2,0.31,0.57,0.28	0.15	0.14	0.00	24	66%	0.42	4	-0.14	5	100%	0.04
Jamario Moon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.23,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.05	0.10	-0.05	0.00	10	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	19	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	80%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
JJ Hickson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jawad Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	6	21%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.26	0.01	-0.27	0.00	4	50%	-0.26	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.06	0.28	0.01	14	59%	0.35	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.17	0.12	-0.00	12	79%	0.33	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	7	75%	0.17	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.17,0.17,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.05	0.00	16	55%	0.10	2	-0.10	8	50%	-0.22
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	9	11%	-0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,-0.09,-0.3	-0.30	0.03	-0.25	0.07	17	59%	-0.14	4	-0.17	7	43%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	35.1	19.7	27.1	2.7	41.7	155.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +68.3%

CLE -13.7%

CHI +9.3%

CLE -13.9%

CLE -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHI	NBA	CLE	CHI	NBA
this game	15.2	14.2	15.3	110.2	111.2	106.0
season	16.1	14.7		109.5	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.0		103.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.0	15.7	13.6	16.8	15.2
CHI	15.0	14.3	14.1	13.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	33	32	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-3	5	15.2	15.2	0.03	14.9	13.8	1.06
Danny Green	7	8	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.04	-1	0	-1	11.7	15.5	-3.78	13.5	14.2	-0.72
JJ Hickson	34	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	1	-3	13.2	16.3	-3.09	13.7	14.4	-0.75
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	52	53	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.42	9	-10	19	16.0	14.4	1.57	15.1	13.1	2.03
Jawad Williams	51	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	2	-5	14.1	16.4	-2.31	13.7	14.7	-0.92
Jamario Moon	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-5	9	16.4	13.9	2.51	14.5	13.7	0.84
Mo Williams	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-4	7	15.0	15.8	-0.77	13.7	15.7	-2.05
Anderson Varejao	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	0	-1	16.2	13.2	3.07	14.3	13.8	0.47
Anthony Parker	56	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.2	15.2	0.06	14.0	14.3	-0.29
Antawn Jamison	65	63	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.32	-16	15	-31	15.2	15.3	-0.16	13.9	14.6	-0.63

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	89	87	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.52	10	-9	19	13.7	18.8	-5.08	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Derrick Rose	81	80	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.46	6	-5	11	13.7	16.5	-2.86	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Joakim Noah	71	68	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-5	11	13.7	15.4	-1.72	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Taj Gibson	48	51	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-2	5	13.8	14.5	-0.65	15.6	14.9	0.72
Kirk Hinrich	73	75	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	5	-9	14.8	12.2	2.64	15.7	13.7	1.94
Brad Miller	42	44	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	-1	3	15.2	13.4	1.80	16.2	14.4	1.78
Jannero Pargo	20	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	3	-5	13.2	14.4	-1.21	13.5	15.6	-2.11
James Johnson	7	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	5	-9	19.0	13.8	5.21	17.5	15.0	2.48
Ronald Murray	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	6	-11	14.4	14.1	0.32	15.4	15.2	0.29
Hakim Warrick	34	33	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	8	-15	14.7	13.9	0.83	14.1	15.8	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.75,0.73,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.39,0.31,0.72,0.57,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, SEA 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.74,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.47,0.63,0.59,0.58,1	91.2%
SAC 79, SAS 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.74,1	90.2%
CLE 93, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.83,1	90.0%