NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	125		Excitement	5.1 [782]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +33.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	108		Comeback	3.6 [428]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -6.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.28	0.09	0.04	16	88%	0.33	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.00	9	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.01	0.04	15	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joey Graham	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	22	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	0.01	16	66%	0.21	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	8	71%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	17	55%	0.11	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.01	0.07	6	93%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	0	75%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	33.5	16.4	25.5	3.3	29.6	136.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.0%

MEM -3.9%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +11.3%

MEM -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	15.1	17.0	15.3	137.4	121.3	106.0
season	14.4	15.4		110.3	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	14.7	16.7	13.7	15.1
MEM	16.0	17.4	18.4	16.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	32	31	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	5	7	15.2	15.0	0.19	17.1	16.9	0.17
Nene	51	53	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.16	13	4	9	15.0	15.1	-0.11	17.2	16.7	0.48
Joey Graham	29	29	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	12	-7	14.1	15.5	-1.41	16.1	17.3	-1.21
J.R. Smith	52	52	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.19	20	-3	23	15.7	14.2	1.46	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Chris Andersen	51	51	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.18	19	-2	21	15.7	14.3	1.37	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Johan Petro	48	46	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.16	9	8	1	14.4	15.8	-1.37	16.4	17.6	-1.21
Arron Afflalo	43	41	0.10	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	20	-23	14.5	15.5	-1.01	16.6	17.2	-0.64
Malik Allen	25	21	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	21	-25	14.9	15.1	-0.20	19.9	16.0	3.86
Carmelo Anthony	65	63	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.26	9	8	1	15.4	14.1	1.33	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Chauncey Billups	59	58	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.28	5	12	-7	15.0	15.2	-0.19	16.9	17.1	-0.17

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	69	70	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.12	-7	-10	3	16.8	17.4	-0.64	15.0	15.2	-0.22
DeMarre Carroll	8	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-20	23	12.7	17.4	-4.62	15.7	15.0	0.71
Marc Gasol	70	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.31	-16	-1	-15	16.5	18.5	-2.00	15.2	14.7	0.47
Mike Conley	53	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.20	-14	-3	-11	16.0	18.4	-2.36	14.8	15.4	-0.51
O.J. Mayo	71	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.27	-17	0	-17	16.4	19.3	-2.98	14.6	16.5	-1.90
Darrell Arthur	8	8	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.27	0	-17	17	16.5	17.0	-0.50	12.1	15.3	-3.22
Rudy Gay	72	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.22	-17	0	-17	17.6	14.2	3.36	15.1	15.1	-0.04
Marcus Williams	36	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-14	11	18.4	16.0	2.36	15.4	14.8	0.51
Hasheem Thabeet	27	28	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-10	3	19.0	16.1	2.88	15.8	14.7	1.09
Sam Young	31	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	-10	3	17.6	16.6	0.96	15.7	14.7	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.4%
VAN 112, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.3%
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.0%