NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	8.6 [164]		MVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): +45.8%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	4.9 [295]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -38.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.34,0.24,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.00	-0.00	14	71%	0.28	2	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.10	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.24	-0.05	-0.19	-0.01	23	41%	-0.19	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.38	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.39,-0.38	-0.08	-0.29	0.01	17	46%	-0.06	5	-0.32	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.39,0.46	0.46	0.12	0.33	-0.01	16	69%	0.49	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	25	56%	0.20	1	-0.02	18	78%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	14	69%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.3,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.19	-0.01	8	12%	-0.25	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	35.0	15.7	30.2	7.8	36.0	152.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.3%

ATL -10.8%

ATL -22.6%

MIA +51.7%

ATL -12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	14.8	15.3	106.8	112.4	106.0
season	16.0	16.2		109.4	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.8		102.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	18.3	15.1	19.1	18.9	17.7
MIA	16.9	14.3	13.6	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	25	24	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.05	6	-12	18	17.6	17.8	-0.18	16.2	14.3	1.83
Maurice Evans	33	34	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.17	12	-18	30	15.3	19.2	-3.88	15.6	14.3	1.32
Joe Smith	13	12	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-10	14	17.4	17.8	-0.40	15.7	14.7	1.06
Mario West	1	1	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-3	0	0.0	17.9	-17.93	3.0	15.0	-11.97
Marvin Williams	44	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.13	-11	5	-16	18.4	17.0	1.41	14.7	15.0	-0.25
Mike Bibby	57	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	17.9	17.4	0.48	14.2	15.9	-1.71
Josh Smith	72	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	17.9	16.7	1.19	14.9	14.4	0.56
Jamal Crawford	55	57	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	-2	-2	18.0	17.2	0.78	15.0	14.5	0.57
Al Horford	62	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	4	-14	18.1	16.9	1.14	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Joe Johnson	78	78	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.24	-15	9	-24	17.9	16.5	1.38	14.6	16.3	-1.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	64	62	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.29	15	-9	24	14.7	15.2	-0.51	17.9	17.2	0.70
Carlos Arroyo	75	75	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.22	17	-11	28	14.1	18.6	-4.52	18.1	15.5	2.57
Quentin Richardson	72	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-5	16	14.8	14.9	-0.06	18.2	16.0	2.17
Dwyane Wade	77	77	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-7	20	14.4	17.7	-3.37	18.1	15.3	2.81
Joel Anthony	21	22	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	-8	22	13.0	15.4	-2.33	19.8	17.0	2.73
Michael Beasley	62	61	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.42	-10	16	-26	15.3	13.7	1.67	17.3	18.7	-1.46
Jermaine O'Neal	20	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	11	-16	16.7	14.3	2.47	18.4	17.5	0.87
James Jones	4	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	8	-10	11.7	15.0	-3.23	12.2	18.0	-5.74
Mario Chalmers	19	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.16	-9	15	-24	17.2	14.2	3.02	14.2	18.6	-4.40
Daequan Cook	11	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	13	-20	16.3	14.6	1.64	16.2	17.9	-1.77
Jamaal Magloire	20	21	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.04	-7	13	-20	15.7	14.6	1.12	16.2	18.2	-1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.27,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.57,0.98,1	91.1%
CHA 86, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.66,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.99,1	90.9%
NYK 74, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.91,1	90.8%