NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	8.7 [154]		MVP	Jason Maxiell (DET): +29.7%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	1.9 [855]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -24.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.10	0.19	-0.00	9	80%	0.35	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	42%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	17	44%	0.09	4	-0.08	11	82%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Will Bynum	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	11	31%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.22	-0.06	-0.15	0.02	10	45%	-0.07	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.06	-0.16	0.03	20	47%	-0.08	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.14	0.19	0.03	11	76%	0.41	4	-0.11	11	100%	0.06
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	9	78%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.02	10	60%	0.18	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	7	72%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	6	43%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.34,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	0.00	25	38%	-0.06	4	-0.17	13	62%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	28.2	16.4	31.1	1.8	36.2	142.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.3%

DEN +17.7%

DET -17.2%

DEN +6.7%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	13.6	15.3	108.5	112.6	106.0
season	16.8	14.4		104.0	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.4	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	18.0	16.0	17.9	16.9
DEN	15.0	11.6	14.7	13.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	45	46	0.28	-0.78	1.07	-0.10	13	-18	31	15.9	17.8	-1.89	15.3	12.0	3.35
Jonas Jerebko	35	36	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-11	17	16.0	17.4	-1.39	15.8	12.3	3.52
Richard Hamilton	70	72	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-15	25	16.3	18.5	-2.24	14.2	11.8	2.43
Tayshaun Prince	69	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.35	9	-14	23	16.7	17.3	-0.61	14.7	11.0	3.71
Rodney Stuckey	72	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-9	13	16.8	17.2	-0.40	13.9	12.8	1.11
Will Bynum	21	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	4	-13	17.2	16.8	0.47	12.0	14.1	-2.14
Austin Daye	25	26	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	9	-23	17.3	16.7	0.61	11.0	14.6	-3.56
Charlie Villanueva	37	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	7	-19	17.4	16.5	0.92	11.9	14.7	-2.79
Ben Gordon	47	47	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.26	-14	9	-23	17.9	15.8	2.09	12.6	14.6	-1.95
Jason Maxiell	49	49	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.26	-18	13	-31	17.8	15.9	1.89	12.0	15.3	-3.35

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	55	56	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.25	18	-13	31	12.1	15.7	-3.55	17.7	15.7	1.95
Joey Graham	43	42	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.11	15	-10	25	11.8	15.2	-3.39	17.3	16.5	0.79
Arron Afflalo	75	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.47	-1	6	-7	13.8	12.8	1.04	16.8	17.1	-0.35
Ty Lawson	29	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-6	17	12.1	14.3	-2.23	17.2	16.7	0.48
Nene	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	11	-17	14.7	12.0	2.70	16.6	17.3	-0.74
Chauncey Billups	70	68	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.35	-5	10	-15	14.1	12.2	1.98	16.4	18.1	-1.72
Chris Andersen	53	54	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.18	11	-6	17	12.6	14.9	-2.34	17.3	16.3	0.95
Carmelo Anthony	69	69	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.20	-8	13	-21	14.6	11.2	3.40	16.7	17.3	-0.61
Malik Allen	24	23	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.12	-10	15	-25	17.1	12.5	4.63	15.7	17.3	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.43,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.64,0.58,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	92.5%
NOP 106, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.76,0.85,1	91.9%
POR 95, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.98,1	91.4%