NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	101		Excitement	4.9 [829]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (TOR): +23.2%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	1.4 [488]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -12.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.06	-0.03	9	85%	0.22	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	60%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	13	42%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	17	51%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	12	35%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.22	0.04	0.03	9	100%	0.25	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	13	60%	0.13	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	7	14%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	22%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	16	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	25.5	17.4	25.4	2.4	31.6	128.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +22.2%

POR +0.1%

POR +3.5%

POR +21.4%

POR +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	17.4	14.4	15.3	111.0	96.7	106.0
season	16.7	15.0		108.8	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		111.5	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.2	16.8	18.2	20.9	17.4
TOR	14.0	15.1	15.2	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	59	59	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.00	24	-10	34	17.5	17.2	0.27	14.6	14.2	0.43
Jerryd Bayless	31	31	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.06	12	2	10	16.9	17.6	-0.70	14.8	14.3	0.50
Juwan Howard	59	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.20	19	-5	24	17.0	18.0	-1.03	15.4	12.9	2.47
Brandon Roy	72	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	5	4	17.5	16.8	0.72	14.0	16.4	-2.43
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	74	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	7	0	17.6	16.2	1.35	14.2	15.6	-1.36
Dante Cunningham	42	42	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	8	-2	16.5	18.1	-1.51	14.3	14.6	-0.25
Martell Webster	15	15	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.00	5	9	-4	15.6	17.7	-2.11	17.3	13.9	3.39
Andre Miller	63	61	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	12	-10	17.8	16.4	1.40	14.3	14.8	-0.51
Patty Mills	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	20.0	17.3	2.67	7.0	14.5	-7.53
Jeff Ayres	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	20.0	17.3	2.67	7.0	14.5	-7.53
Nicolas Batum	37	37	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.20	-14	28	-42	18.2	16.8	1.35	13.6	15.0	-1.35

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-14	14	14.4	14.5	-0.15	16.1	18.1	-2.08
Jarrett Jack	60	62	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-15	16	13.6	16.0	-2.38	17.8	16.4	1.34
Sonny Weems	23	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-10	6	14.4	14.5	-0.07	18.1	17.1	1.03
Antoine Wright	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-8	2	13.2	15.5	-2.29	18.1	16.8	1.34
Reggie Evans	24	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-12	10	15.9	13.9	2.01	17.8	17.2	0.64
Marco Belinelli	15	15	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-6	-2	15.5	14.2	1.23	14.7	17.9	-3.15
DeMar DeRozan	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-8	2	15.1	14.1	0.97	16.6	17.8	-1.14
Amir Johnson	40	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-12	10	14.5	14.4	0.05	18.7	16.2	2.53
Hedo Turkoglu	66	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.19	-3	-11	8	14.7	13.9	0.78	17.5	17.0	0.55
Andrea Bargnani	69	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.01	-18	4	-22	14.3	14.9	-0.60	16.3	20.5	-4.17
Jose Calderon	45	44	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	0.02	-22	8	-30	15.0	13.8	1.20	18.0	16.8	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 115, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
IND 109, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0	94.1%
HOU 114, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.9%