NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	5.3 [750]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +15.0%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.0 [997]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -21.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	0.01	0.08	14	76%	0.14	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	10	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.06	8	79%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	13	54%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Glen Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	10	21%	-0.14	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.02	0.05	11	81%	0.21	3	-0.06	10	100%	0.04
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.12	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	16	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	33%	-0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.8	35.5	19.5	26.4	3.5	36.2	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.8%

DEN +4.4%

DEN +10.7%

DEN +4.2%

BOS -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.3	109.4	118.8	106.0
season	15.5	14.4		105.7	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	19.0	13.1	15.3	12.9	15.0
DEN	12.3	16.9	14.0	16.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	13.0	15.1	-2.09	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Shelden Williams	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	13.0	15.1	-2.09	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Tony Allen	28	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.11	1	-10	11	13.5	15.6	-2.10	15.9	14.6	1.24
Kendrick Perkins	48	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-6	3	15.8	14.2	1.54	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Paul Pierce	61	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	-1	-7	15.2	14.7	0.48	14.7	15.5	-0.84
Glen Davis	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-11	13	15.2	15.0	0.20	16.3	14.3	1.95
Marquis Daniels	36	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-9	9	14.3	15.4	-1.10	15.4	14.7	0.69
Kevin Garnett	62	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	4	-17	15.3	14.4	0.90	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Ray Allen	87	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	14.8	17.0	-2.18	15.2	13.0	2.18
Rasheed Wallace	43	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	2	-13	14.6	15.4	-0.75	15.6	14.5	1.18
Rajon Rondo	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.06	-16	7	-23	15.6	12.9	2.68	14.3	17.3	-2.95

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	61	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-9	27	16.2	12.9	3.25	15.7	13.7	1.99
Carmelo Anthony	85	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-5	19	15.1	13.7	1.41	15.2	14.0	1.15
Chauncey Billups	67	67	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-5	19	13.5	18.4	-4.87	15.6	13.7	1.96
J.R. Smith	57	56	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	10	-11	15.2	14.6	0.61	13.5	17.2	-3.74
Nene	58	57	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.08	11	-2	13	13.7	16.9	-3.26	15.8	13.8	1.98
Kenyon Martin	66	66	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	9	-9	15.1	14.7	0.41	14.4	16.4	-1.96
Arron Afflalo	53	54	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	7	-5	14.3	15.9	-1.60	15.7	14.1	1.65
Ty Lawson	27	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.30	-8	17	-25	17.4	14.0	3.43	12.9	15.8	-2.91
Anthony Carter	4	4	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	10	-11	23.5	14.6	8.89	17.7	14.9	2.85
Joey Graham	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	16.0	15.0	1.04	12.0	15.1	-3.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 101, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.92,0.97,1	94.9%
MIN 89, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.8,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CLE 100, BOS 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%