NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	127		Excitement	6.7 [451]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +42.2%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	7.5 [261]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -17.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42	0.24	0.17	-0.01	17	77%	0.47	3	-0.05	13	92%	0.07
Josh Howard	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.14	0.12	-0.02	12	69%	0.27	1	0.01	12	83%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	9	60%	0.12	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	9	77%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	14	67%	0.17	4	-0.15	8	100%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	5	42%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.03	-0.01	20	75%	0.29	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	9	58%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	20	54%	0.18	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.03
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	23	51%	0.08	5	-0.25	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	2.4	32.7	16.3	24.9	2.8	34.5	145.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +17.5%

DAL +30.2%

GSW -10.4%

DAL +16.9%

GSW -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.7	14.1	15.3	123.3	112.5	106.0
season	15.2	13.4		107.2	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.5		110.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.5	14.3	13.1	12.1	13.7
GSW	12.3	15.7	15.2	13.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	89	88	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.08	21	-11	32	13.6	14.6	-1.00	14.2	13.9	0.28
Jason Terry	89	90	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.12	17	-7	24	13.5	15.1	-1.58	14.6	11.1	3.43
Josh Howard	81	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-4	18	13.4	14.7	-1.24	13.7	16.0	-2.30
Dirk Nowitzki	64	63	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.47	1	9	-8	13.1	14.6	-1.50	14.1	14.1	-0.05
Jason Kidd	85	85	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.25	8	2	6	13.7	13.8	-0.08	14.6	12.0	2.59
Rodrigue Beaubois	4	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	14	-18	11.7	13.8	-2.04	13.0	14.2	-1.17
Jose Juan Barea	28	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	11	-12	14.7	13.3	1.38	11.4	15.1	-3.73
Eduardo Najera	6	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	17	-24	14.2	13.7	0.49	13.5	14.2	-0.67
Shawn Marion	69	70	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.15	1	9	-8	14.7	11.7	2.95	14.7	12.9	1.79

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	3	2	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-13	16	7.7	14.3	-6.64	20.0	13.6	6.42
CJ Watson	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-3	-4	14.7	14.0	0.66	14.4	13.6	0.77
Andris Biedrins	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-5	0	14.2	14.0	0.24	14.4	13.1	1.34
Anthony Tolliver	82	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	5	-20	14.3	13.5	0.72	13.3	14.9	-1.57
Monta Ellis	96	95	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	14.2	12.5	1.75	13.6	15.4	-1.81
Anthony Morrow	99	98	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-4	-2	13.9	18.2	-4.29	13.8	12.8	0.96
Ronny Turiaf	74	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-7	4	14.1	14.1	0.02	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Stephen Curry	104	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.1	0.0	14.12	13.7	0.0	13.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.71,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, NOK 76	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.03,0,0	93.3%
DEN 106, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.22,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0	91.9%
NYK 95, BKN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.1,0	91.7%